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[Industry Focus]：Raw material propylene prices decline, downstream demand is not strong, acrylonitrile prices or continue to fall slightly

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As of February 23, East China port acrylonitrile price increase in 10600-10800 yuan/ton, compared with February 16 market price of 10900 yuan/ton fell 200 yuan/ton; Shandong acrylonitrile market mainstream turnover of 10500-10600 yuan/ton, compared with February 16 market price fell 250 yuan/ton.

Since mid-February, the center of gravity of the acrylonitrile market has moved down and the market price fluctuations have declined. During this period, from the perspective of cost, the domestic propylene market first rose and then fell. Late last week, polypropylene futures opened higher, boosting market sentiment. The parking expectations of some PDH equipment are stacked together, actively buying the market and replenishing inventory. Propylene production enterprises have no pressure to ship, and the quotation range has been explored. This week, the main downstream polypropylene profit is poor, the demand for raw material propylene is limited. The fluctuation of some chemical downstream equipment has affected the supply and demand structure of the local market, and the enthusiasm for buying the market is not high. The shipping pressure of propylene production enterprises gradually appears, and the quotation range is loosened and decreased, generally supporting acrylonitrile. In terms of supply and demand, in terms of acrylonitrile's own unit, Dongfang Petrochemical's 200000-ton unit is operating at full capacity this week, while Jilin Petrochemical's Guangdong Jieyang 130000-ton unit has not yet produced qualified products. Acrylonitrile as a whole has begun to be slightly adjusted, but the supply is still sufficient. Operators are waiting for the factory's settlement price to be released. News lacks further favorable support, but fundamentals remain weak. However, the current price of acrylonitrile is close to the cost line, so the acrylonitrile market has fallen within a narrow range this cycle, and the range is not large. Starting from mid-February, China's acrylonitrile operating rate is 71.06, and the production capacity base is 4.139 million tons.

From the perspective of market prospects, the price of raw material propylene is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and the cost end is not strong; the supply of acrylonitrile itself may not change much, and the downstream demand is weak and stable, but the purchasing sentiment is not high. It is expected that the price of acrylonitrile market will continue to decline slightly in the short term. It is recommended to focus on downstream purchases and vendor trends.

Source: Zhongyu Information

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