[Industry Focus]：A number of chemical raw materials overcapacity, petrochemical industry reshuffle differentiation hit

in 2022, my country's ethylene production capacity will reach 49.33 million tons, which has surpassed the United States and become the world's largest ethylene producer. Ethylene has always been regarded as a key indicator to determine the production level of the chemical industry. It is estimated that by 2025, my country's ethylene production capacity will exceed 70 million tons, which will basically meet domestic demand and even appear surplus.

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ethylene industry is the petrochemical industry core, its products accounted for petrochemical products 75%, in the national economy occupies an important position.

ethylene, propylene, butadiene, acetylene, benzene, toluene, xylene, ethylene oxide, ethylene glycol, etc. Produced by ethylene plant, it is the basic raw material in the field of new energy and new materials. In addition, the production cost of ethylene produced by large-scale integrated refining and chemical enterprises is relatively low. Compared with oil refining enterprises of the same scale, the added value of products of refining and chemical integration enterprises can be increased by 25%, and energy consumption can be reduced by 15%.

polycarbonate, lithium battery separator, photovoltaic EVA (ethylene-vinyl acetate copolymer) can be made of ethylene, alpha-olefin, POE (polyolefin elastomer), carbonate, DMC (dimethyl carbonate), ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE) waiting for new material products. According to statistics, there are 18 kinds of ethylene downstream products related to new energy, new materials and other tuyere industries. Due to the rapid development of new energy and new industries such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and semiconductors, the demand for new material products is increasing.

ethylene, as the core of the petrochemical industry, may be surplus, marking the petrochemical industry is facing a reshuffle and differentiation. Not only competitive enterprises to eliminate backward enterprises, advanced production capacity to eliminate backward production capacity, and ethylene downstream industry chain subdivision of the demise and rebirth of leading enterprises.

Head companies may reshuffle

there may be a surplus of ethylene
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, forcing the refining and chemical integration device to continuously replenish the chain, extend the chain and strengthen the chain to improve the competitiveness of the device. Starting from crude oil, it is necessary to create an integrated raw material advantage. As long as there are market prospects or products with a certain market capacity, a line will be drawn, which also accelerates the survival of the fittest in the entire chemical industry. The production and pattern of bulk chemical products and fine chemical products will usher in changes. The variety and scale of production will become more and more concentrated, and the number of enterprises will gradually decrease.

the rapid development of consumer electronics, automotive intelligence, and home appliance intelligence in the

communication equipment, mobile phones, and wearable devices has driven the rapid growth of demand for new chemical materials. These new chemical materials and monomer leading enterprises showing a growth trend will evolve faster, such as ethylene downstream 18 kinds of new energy and new material products.

fan Hongwei, chairman of

Hengli Petrochemical, said that how to maintain a strong competitive advantage and tap more new profit points under the operating framework of the entire industrial chain is a key issue that needs to be considered. It is necessary to give full play to the advantages of the upstream industrial chain, broaden and deepen the industrial chain around downstream products, create new competitive advantages, strive to promote the steady expansion of downstream products, and build a fine chemical industry chain.

, Hengli petrochemical subsidiary Kanghui new materials can on-line production of 12 micron silicon laminated lithium battery protection film, Hengli Petrochemical can mass production specifications 5DFDY products, its MLCC off-type base film domestic production accounts for more than 65%.

takes refining and chemical integration as a platform to extend horizontally and vertically, expand and strengthen subdivision areas, and form integrated development in subdivision areas. As soon as an enterprise enters the market, it may enter the leading enterprise. Ethylene downstream 18 new energy, new materials products leading enterprises may face a change of main departure.

In fact, as early as 2017, Shenghong Petrochemical took advantage of the whole industry chain to launch 300000 tons/year EVA. By the end of 2024, it will gradually put into production an additional 750000 tons of EVA. By 2025, Shenghong Petrochemical will become the world's largest high-end EVA supply base.

the number of parks and enterprises in China's existing chemical concentration areas and major chemical provinces will be gradually reduced again. More than 80 chemical parks in Shandong will even be gradually reduced to half, and Zibo, Dongying and other chemical enterprise concentration areas will be phased out by half. For an enterprise, it is not that you are not excellent, but that your competitors are too strong.

"oil reduction and increase" is becoming more and more difficult in

"oil reduction and increase" has become the transformation direction of the domestic refining and chemical industry. At present, the transformation planning of the refinery mainly produces ethylene, propylene, butadiene, benzene, toluene, xylene and other basic organic chemical raw materials. Judging from the current development trend, ethylene and propylene still have some room for development, while ethylene may be surplus, "reducing oil and increasing" will become more and more difficult.

First of all, project selection is difficult, product selection is difficult. First, market demand and market capacity are becoming more and more difficult to choose products with mature technology. Second, there is market demand and market capacity. Some products are completely dependent on imported products and do not master production technology, such as high-end synthetic resin materials, high-end synthetic rubber, high-end synthetic fibers and monomers, high-end carbon fibers, engineering plastics, and high-purity electronic chemicals Wait., All of these are faced with the problem of "stuck neck", and these products are unlikely to introduce complete sets of technology, only to increase R & D investment.

the entire industry to reduce oil and increase, eventually leading to overcapacity in chemical products. In recent years, the integration project of refining and chemical industry basically aims at "reducing oil and increasing chemical industry", and the existing refining and chemical enterprises also regard "reducing oil and increasing chemical industry" as the direction of transformation and upgrading. In the past two or three years, China's new chemical capacity has almost exceeded that of the previous decade combined. The entire oil refining industry "reduced oil increase". After the peak of chemical production capacity construction, the whole industry may have a phase surplus or excess. Many new chemical materials and fine chemical products have a small market. As long as there is a breakthrough in technology, they will rush into the market, leading to overcapacity and loss of profits, and even falling into a price war.