[Industry Focus]：The price of glacial acetic acid and its downstream industrial chain both show a downward trend.

In September, the price of glacial acetic acid in China and its downstream industrial chain showed a downward trend. In previous years, the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" traditional peak season did not appear in September this year. Is there an upward trend in October?

Downstream demand is sluggish and glacial acetic acid prices fall.

at the beginning and mid -of September, the domestic glacial acetic acid industry started to gradually improve. Although some equipment starts are unstable, the overall load is high and the weekly starts are kept between 83.20% and 84.77%. However, downstream demand did not improve significantly, trading is difficult to ideal, resulting in glacial acetic acid prices continue to fall. In late, with the dissatisfaction of the load of multiple sets of equipment, the weekly start-up dropped to 79.49%, and the supplier provided some support for the market. At the same time, when the pre-price of glacial acetic acid falls, the price of raw material methanol rises, making the cost pressure of glacial acetic acid enterprises obvious and the price willingness to increase. The price of glacial acetic acid began to stop falling and stabilized, but the volume was less.

the overall decline in domestic glacial acetic acid in September, weakening the cost support of downstream products. In addition, due to the impact of imported goods and relatively flat demand, most downstream products also declined. Of course, there are downstream shocks, with limited price volatility. As of September 23, the ex-factory price of major calcium carbide vinyl acetate manufacturers was 7700 yuan/ton, down 14.44% from the beginning of the month. The closing price of the main ethylene acetate market in East China was 8,000-8,600 yuan/ton, down 16.58% from the beginning of the month. In terms of acetic anhydride, as of September 22, taking the East China market as an example, the average price closed at 5350 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton from the beginning of last month, down 6.14%.

specifically, vinyl acetate, import supply impact and some manufacturers' sales strategy adjustment, the market downward pressure continues to exist, major manufacturers have repeatedly reduced prices, market empty news, affecting the industry's purchasing enthusiasm, although most users recognize the current price, but under the guidance of the news, procurement is cautious, the market negotiation atmosphere is not good. Hollow attitude is the main factor affecting market negotiations. Some users have inventory before the festival, and large order negotiations are still cautious.

have a phased impact on the market price of acetic anhydride. At the beginning of this month, raw material glacial acetic acid market finishing operation, cost boost effect is limited, downstream procurement options are low, demand performance is general, the seller's shipment situation is different, mainly according to their own actual sales situation adjustment, price center of gravity fluctuations are limited. In the middle and late stage, the raw material market is weak, the late operator expectations are poor, the market supply side is relatively sufficient, the downstream demand is weak, cautious, resist high prices, the seller intends to actively ship, the market price center of gravity decline.
ethyl acetate did not fall in September like vinyl acetate and acetic anhydride, price fluctuations were relatively limited, and the overall average price rebounded from August. Taking the Jiangsu market as an example, as of the close of trading on the 22nd, the average monthly price was 6604 yuan/ton, up 1.89% from the previous month. The price fluctuation of ethyl acetate mainly comes from the increase of demand and the guidance of raw materials.

in September was a double festival. Some downstream industries such as ethyl acetate increased their demand for packaging. Some industries had large inventories, and factory shipments improved significantly compared with last month. In addition, the price of alcohol has also increased, driven by demand. Although the glacial acetic acid market lacks clear and active support, due to the impact of cost factors, there is also limited room for continued decline. Driven by this, the market continued bearish atmosphere weakened, market procurement is relatively positive. Ethyl acetate did not fall as much in September as vinyl acetate and acetic anhydride, with relatively limited price volatility and an overall average price rebound from August. Taking the Jiangsu market as an example, as of the close of trading on the 22nd, the average monthly price was 6604 yuan/ton, up 1.89% from the previous month. The price fluctuation of ethyl acetate mainly comes from the increase of demand and the guidance of raw materials.

glacial acetic acid supply and demand fluctuations are limited, short-term small fluctuations

At present, the glacial acetic acid market has stopped falling and stabilized. At the end of September, downstream users had pre-holiday stock demand, the industry bearish mentality significantly weakened. Therefore, the market negotiation atmosphere may be improved than before, and the market operation is stable. We need to see if demand can boost in early October. Ice acetic acid enterprises have not yet started the adjustment plan, supply support is relatively general, ice acetic acid price rebound space is limited.

is downstream of glacial acetic acid, there is still empty news in the vinyl acetate market, large order negotiations are more cautious, the price is close to the production cost of calcium carbide method, the market continues to decline with limited space, and import resources are abundant. The cost of calcium carbide method may become the main factor in the operation scope of vinyl acetate. It is expected that it may reach the bottom from the end of September to the beginning of October. Attention should be paid to the enthusiasm of ethylene acetate enterprises. The short-term supply of acetic anhydride is still relatively sufficient, still lack of positive boost, the market impact operation, pay attention to the small holiday before the downstream replenishment. The demand for ethyl acetate inventory still exists before the National Day, and market transactions are expected to improve. However, based on the current high overall load of the industry, major factories still give priority to warehouses before the festival. It is expected that prices will be difficult to fluctuate. In October, downstream demand and raw material trends still need to be observed.

Source: Zhuochuang Chemical

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