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[Industry Focus]：Supply and demand stability, methanol prices or continue to fluctuate mainly

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methanol as a widely used chemical, it is used to produce many different kinds of chemical products, such as polymers, solvents and fuels. Among them, domestic methanol to coal-based, imported methanol is mainly divided into Iranian sources and non-Iranian sources, supply-side drive to see inventory cycle, supply increment, alternative supply. As the largest downstream of methanol, MTO demand is critical to the price-driven impact of methanol.

1. Methanol capacity price factor

According to statistics, as of the end of last year, the annual production capacity of the methanol industry was about 99.5 million tons, and the annual production capacity growth rate gradually slowed down. In 2023, methanol plans to add about 5 million tons of new production capacity, and the actual new production capacity is expected to account for about 80%., Reaching about 4 million tons. Among them, the first quarter of this year Ningxia Baofeng three 2.4 million tons annual production capacity device put into operation probability is larger.

There are many factors that

determine the price of methanol, including supply and demand, production costs and global economic conditions. In addition, the price of crude oil used to produce methanol also affects the price of methanol futures, as well as environmental regulations, technological advances and geopolitical events.

the price fluctuation of

methanol futures also shows a certain regularity. Generally, the price of methanol forms pressure from March to April every year, which is generally the off-season of demand. Therefore, the maintenance of methanol plant also starts gradually at this stage. June to July is the seasonal high and the off-season price is low. Methanol fell mostly in October, and MA opened higher and lower last year after the National Day in October.

2, the market situation analysis forecast

methanol futures are used in a variety of industries, including energy, chemicals, plastics and textiles, and are closely related to related varieties. In addition, methanol is a key component in the production of formaldehyde, acetic acid and dimethyl ether (DME), among many other products, which have a wide range of applications.

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in the international market, China, the United States, Europe and Japan are the largest methanol consumers. China is the largest producer and consumer of methanol, and its methanol market has an important influence on the international market. China's demand for methanol has continued to grow over the past few years, driving up prices in the international market.

Since January this year, there has been little contradiction between methanol supply and demand, and the monthly operating load of MTO, acetic acid and MTBE has increased slightly. The overall operating load of the methanol end of the country has decreased. According to statistics, the monthly methanol production capacity involved is about 102 million tons, of which 600000 tons/year in Ningxia Kunpeng, 250000 tons/year in Shanxi Juncheng and 500000 tons/year in Anhui Carbon Xin were added in February.

in general, short-term above, methanol or continue to shock mainly, the spot market and the disk performance is good. Methanol supply and demand are expected to be driven or weakened in the second quarter of this year, and MTO profits are expected to repair upward. In the long run, the medium-term MTO device losses last longer profit elasticity is limited, PP supply and demand pressure is greater. short term above, methanol or continue to shock mainly, the spot market and the disk more than good performance. Methanol supply and demand are expected to be driven or weakened in the second quarter of this year, and MTO profits are expected to repair upward. In the long run, the medium-term MTO device losses last longer profit elasticity is limited, PP supply and demand pressure is greater.

Source: Guoye e

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