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[Industry Focus]：Acrylonitrile prices fell year-on-year, the second quarter chain trend is still not optimistic

Read： 564 Time：12months ago Source：卓创化工

In the first quarter of

, acrylonitrile chain prices fell year-on-year, capacity expansion continued, and most products continued to lose money.

1, first quarter chain price year on year down

in the first quarter of

, the price of acrylonitrile chain decreased year on year, and only the price of synthetic ammonia increased slightly year on year. In recent years, the production capacity of chain products represented by acrylonitrile has continued to expand, and the pattern of oversupply of some products has gradually emerged, and product prices have dropped significantly compared with the same period last year. Among them, ABS was the largest year-on-year decline in the price of chain products, down more than 20% year-on-year. As of the end of the first quarter, the average price of acrylonitrile in the East China port market was 10416 yuan/ton, down 8.91 percent from the same period last year and up 0.17 percent from the fourth quarter of last year.

As far as the acrylonitrile industry itself is concerned, the capacity of the acrylonitrile industry continued to expand in the first quarter. According to Zhuochuang information statistics, the acrylonitrile industry added 330000 tons of new production capacity in the first quarter, up 8.97 from the end of 2022, with a total production capacity of 4.009 million tons. From the industry's own supply and demand situation, the total output of acrylonitrile was about 760000 tons, down 2.68 percent year-on-year and up 0.53 percent month-on-month. In terms of downstream consumption, the downstream consumption of acrylonitrile in the first quarter was about 695000 tons, an increase of 2.52 percent over the same period last year and a decrease of 5.7 percent from the previous quarter.

first quarter chain profit loss is mainly the first quarter chain profit loss

in the first quarter of

, although the profits of some acrylonitrile chain products increased month on month, most products continued to lose money. ABS has changed a lot in positive earnings products, falling more than 90% month on month. In the first quarter, the price of acrylonitrile fell after rising, the overall price rose slightly compared with the fourth quarter of last year, and the cost pressure of downstream products increased. In addition, the pace of ABS capacity expansion continued, plant cost pressure increased significantly, manufacturers significantly reduced profit margins. In terms of acrylonitrile, due to the obvious loss of the factory in 2022, the manufacturers are more flexible in adjusting the equipment load. In the first quarter of 2023, the average starting load rate of the industry decreased significantly, and the overall price decreased after the increase. The loss degree of the acrylonitrile factory was slightly smaller than that in the fourth quarter of last year. By the end of the first quarter, the average profit of the acrylonitrile plant was close to 181 yuan/ton.

, 2, 2 quarter chain trend is still not optimistic

acrylonitrile prices fell in the first quarter after the increase, the extent of plant losses slightly. Looking forward to the second quarter, the overall trend of the chain is still not optimistic. Among them, the overall trend of acrylic acid and synthetic ammonia is expected to fluctuate slightly. In terms of acrylonitrile, some factories plan to maintain, but the downstream demand has not improved and the price is difficult to break through the high point in the first quarter. In terms of downstream products, the orders of acrylic acid terminal factories are general, and the prices of manufacturers may decline. New ABS production capacity continues to be released. The domestic supply of general materials is relatively surplus, and the price may remain relatively low. The overall chain is still not optimistic.

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