[International Situation]：Senior officials said they would increase the production and supply of bulk commodities and key parts; The number of people who asked for unemployment benefits in the United States fell below 300,000 at the beginning of the week.

Introduction: Senior officials said they would increase the production and supply of commodities and key components. In September, China's exports of goods increased 19.9% year on year, while exports in the first three quarters increased 22.7% year on year. In September, China's CPI rose 10.7% year on year, while CPI rose 0.7% year on year. At the beginning of the week, the number of jobless claims fell below 300,000.

on October 12, President Xi Jinping attended the fifteenth summit of the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity by video and delivered a keynote speech. Xi Jinping pointed out that in order to promote the realization of carbon peak and carbon neutralization goals, China will successively release carbon peak implementation plans and a series of support and safeguard measures in key areas and industries, and build a carbon peak, carbon neutralization "1 + N" policy system. China will continue to promote industrial structure and energy structure adjustment, vigorously develop renewable energy, and accelerate the planning and construction of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base projects.

On October 14, Premier Li Keqiang attended the opening ceremony of the 130th China Import and Export Fair and Pearl River International Trade Forum and delivered a keynote speech. Li Keqiang said that China's economic development has shown strong resilience and great vitality, and has the ability and confidence to achieve the annual goals and tasks. Adhere to free trade, strengthen policy coordination, increase the production and supply of bulk commodities and key components, enhance the supply capacity of important commodities, promote the smooth flow of international logistics, and maintain the stable and smooth operation of the global industrial chain supply chain.

customs data show that the total value of China's import and export of goods 3.53 trillion in September, up 15.4% year on year. Among them, exports 1.98 trillion, up 19.9% year-on-year; imports 1.55 trillion, up 10.1% year-on-year; trade surplus 433.19 billion. In the first three quarters, the total value of China's foreign trade import and export 28.33 trillion, up 22.7% year on year. Among them, exports 15.55 trillion, up 22.7% year-on-year; Imports of 12.78 trillion yuan, up 22.6% year-on-year. Foreign trade import and export has achieved positive year-on-year growth for five consecutive quarters.

Looking forward to the fourth quarter of this year, China's import and export high year-on-year is difficult to sustain, the fourth quarter pressure may increase. Among them, exports, exports are expected to remain resilient, but due to the base effect, the first half of the high year-on-year is difficult to reproduce. At the same time, PMI new export orders continued to contract and decline, shipping prices were high, and export pressure may increase in the fourth quarter. On the import side, in order to achieve the goal of double control of energy consumption during the year, the pressure on enterprise production caused by power restriction and production restriction may continue in the short term, causing import demand to fall back.

according to released by the National Bureau of Statistics, China's PPI rose 10.7% year-on-year in September, with an expected rise of 10.5% and a previous value of 9.5%;CPI rose 0.7% year-on-year, with an expected 0.8% and a previous value of 0.8%. Looking forward to the future, CPI is expected to enter a small recovery process year-on-year, but it is unlikely that CPI will exceed 2.0% year-on-year in the fourth quarter; in October, P PI will continue to rise year-on-year, and the "scissors gap" between PPI and CPI will remain at a high level in the short term. This means that in the future, the operating difficulties of downstream small and micro enterprises will intensify, and it is expected that the targeted support policy for small and micro enterprises in the fourth quarter will be further increased.

U.S. initial jobless claims fell below 300,000. The number of jobless claims in the United States at the beginning of the week ended October 9 was 293,000, the lowest since March 2020. However, the end of the epidemic unemployment benefits and back-to-school did not lead to a significant increase in hiring, and September was the slowest month of job growth in the United States this year. The cooling of the labor market, coupled with lingering supply chain problems, led several economists to lower their third-quarter economic growth forecasts.

The Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council issued the National Standardization Development Outline. The outline mentions the establishment of sound carbon peak and carbon neutralization standards. Raise the energy consumption limit requirements for key products and expand the coverage of energy consumption limit standards and other supporting standards.

On October 12, Premier Li Keqiang of the State Council held a video meeting with Mongolian Prime Minister Oyun Erden. Li Keqiang stressed that he is happy to see the two countries expand the scale of coal trade to achieve mutual benefit and win-win results. China encourages and supports enterprises of the two countries to actively carry out cooperation in accordance with market principles and business rules to ensure smooth and safe energy supply chain at long-term reasonable and stable prices.

Some market participants expect that the acceleration of special debt issuance in October and November will make fiscal deposits flow out of the banking system, superimposed on the fourth quarter MLF maturity volume, liquidity or there will be a certain gap. In order to calm the imbalance between supply and demand, the fourth quarter can usher in a downgrade, expected to time or around November.

◎ National Energy Administration data show that in September, China's economy continued to recover steadily, and the electricity consumption of the whole society continued to grow, reaching 694.7 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, and a two-year average growth of 7.4%.

◎ In September, China added a new RMB loan of 1660 billion yuan, estimated at 1810 billion yuan, and the previous value was 1,220 billion yuan; the social financing scale increased by 2.9 trillion yuan, estimated at 3,050 billion yuan, and the previous value was 2955.8 billion yuan; money supply M2 increased by 8.3% year-on-year, estimated at 8.2%, and the previous value was 8.2%.

◎ On October 13, the World Bank said that as countries gradually gain results in their response to the new crown epidemic, the global economy gradually recovers and expects global economic growth to 5.6% in 2021.

The IMF lowered its global economic growth forecast, issuing its harshest warning to date on stagflation. This year's global economic growth forecast has been adjusted to 5.9% from 6% reported in July, while next year's forecast growth rate will remain at 4.9%. Among them, the forecasts for China's economic growth this year and next are 8.0% and 5.6% respectively. In 2021, the U.S. economy grew by 6%, down 1 percentage point from the previous forecast.

on, local time, U.S. President Biden signed a short-term debt ceiling bill, which temporarily raised the U.S. government's borrowing ceiling by 480 billion U.S. dollars to 28.9 trillion U.S. dollars. The bill will help the U.S. government avoid defaulting on its debt until December this year. At that time, the two parties in the US Congress must reach an agreement on the issue again, otherwise the government will continue to face debt default.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on October 14 released data show that the U.S. September P PI rose 0.5% month-on-month, up 8.6% year-on-year, less than expected 8.7%, is still the highest level since November 2010.

on October 14, Germany's five authoritative economic research institutions released the autumn joint economic forecast report, once again lowered the German economic growth forecast this year. The report predicts that the German economy will grow by 2.4% percent this year, 1.3 percentage points lower than the growth forecast released in the spring.

◎ The Federal Reserve released the minutes of the September currency policy meeting, showing that the FOMC may start Taper (reduced QE) in mid-November or mid-December 2021, and the reduced bond purchase plan may end in mid -2022.

On October 13, US President Biden made a public speech, announcing that the two largest ports in the United States, Los Angeles Port and Long Beach Port, will operate 24 hours a day and 7 days a week to solve the problem of port cargo congestion.

◎ German Federal Bureau of Statistics released data show that in September German wholesale sales prices rose 13.2% year-on-year to a 47-year high, setting the highest level since the first oil crisis in June 1974.

This article is reprinted on the Internet, and the copyright belongs to the original author. Some articles cannot be contacted with the original author in time when they are pushed. If copyright issues are involved, please contact us and we will delete the articles as soon as possible.