[Industry Reports]：The styrene market is more volatile in the third quarter and is more likely to decline in the fourth quarter.

, the domestic styrene market fluctuated greatly. The supply and demand of East China, South China and North markets showed certain differences, and the price difference between regions changed frequently. East China still leads other market trends, but other markets have also strengthened the phased constraints on mainstream East China.

, the styrene market fluctuated greatly, and the international crude oil, cost and supply and demand performed differently in different periods. There is also some differentiation between supply and demand in East China, South China and North markets, with frequent changes in inter-regional spreads. In general, the East China market remained tight for most of the third quarter, the South China market was relatively abundant for most of the time, and the northern market changed between tension and tension balance. Taking the trend in East China as an example, the third quarter can be divided into the following two bands:

Data source: Jinlianchuang

July to Mid-August-Styrene Market High Shock Diving

July, East China styrene maintained a high impact, spot negotiations around the 9600-10700 yuan/ton range, up and down frequently. Terminal inventories remain low, the supply side continues to be tight, and high-cost pressure storage support. However, the periphery is unstable, only need to follow up on high-priced raw materials, businesses are worried about medium-and long-term supply increment in stages, the overall center of gravity is also limited, the rise and fall is difficult to have sustained performance. However, in August, due to the sharp drop in crude oil, commodity futures generally fell, raw material pure benzene fell sharply, and many negative pressures, styrene easily fell below the 9000 yuan/ton channel to open a downward channel. The low shipping prices of some large enterprises in Shandong had a significant impact on East China and the macro was weak. Sinopec's pure benzene listing price continued to fall under pressure. The inventory of styrene in East China's main port rebounded and the spot market fell weaker. By the end of August 18, the spot negotiations in East China had fallen to 8180-8200 yuan/ton, it hit a new low.

: Mid-August to September-Styrene market rebounded rapidly after diving ended and
fell sharply continuously. International crude oil prices rose, chemical commodity futures generally strengthened, raw material pure benzene center of gravity rebounded, styrene stopped rebounding rapidly, especially domestic styrene started not high, two typhoons affected, wharf inventory was slow, falling to 36,000 tons in early September, reaching a new low of more than four years, and the spot shortage mode eased, only need to cooperate well with some empty orders, styrene rebounded to above 9500 yuan/ton and above 950-9850 yuan/ton in early September. Close to the end of the third quarter, crude oil diving, can make commodities generally fall, long positions reduce and short position pressure futures disk decline, the National Day holiday before traders safe, styrene spot quickly fell, as of September 29, East China spot fell to 9080-9100 yuan/ton.

looks forward to the styrene market in the fourth quarter.
the world's major economies will continue to maintain monetary tightening policies, and the continued interest rate hike policy will reduce economic and demand expectations. At the same time, the geopolitical crisis continues or has potential support for crude oil, and the surrounding areas are still in turmoil. From the perspective of the balance of supply and demand for styrene, it is gradually transitioning to loose supply, and cost support weakens expectations. In the fourth quarter, the height of styrene and the fluctuation center of gravity are more likely to decline, but in the short to medium term, the sustainability of the rise and fall is insufficient. Specifically:

In terms of upstream pure benzene, attention should be paid to the production and production progress of Shenghong Refinery and Weilian Phase II in the fourth quarter. In addition, the restart plan of the late pure benzene and hydrogen benzene parking device increases, the overall energy expansion downstream is relatively poor, the medium and long-term supply tends to be loose, the cost or styrene has some pressure.

In styrene, supply-side expectations increase. In addition to the reduction in maintenance of the domestic old equipment program, there are incremental expectations of import supply. From November to December, some of the main styrene equipment in East China has been overhauled, but the factory said it has not yet been finalized and still depends on the market. In terms of new equipment, Lianyungang Petrochemical's 600,000-ton SM new equipment is scheduled to be put into production in November, and several other sets of new equipment are more likely to be delayed. On the demand side, major downstream demand is expected to remain stable in the short to medium term. As the weather gets colder, some downstream demand in the northern market is expected to weaken. At that time, we need to pay attention to the impact of supply flows between styrene domestic trade.