[Industry Reports]：Polycarbonate prices rebound in September

Polycarbonate prices rebounded in September, taking East China as an example. Compared with the end of August, the negotiation price of injection molding low-end materials and medium-and high-end materials increased by 350~900 yuan (ton price, the same below), up 2.03% ~ 7.35%. From the perspective of market prospects, demand growth is lower than expected, new production capacity is expected to release PC growth is difficult to sustain, production enterprises loss to profit is almost hopeless.

polycarbonate supply is expected to increase in

PC August hit a new low since 2021, the market showed a low consolidation pattern. In September, the supply side decreased, assist, assist. The PC market has bottomed out. In early September, 260,000 tons/ton per year in North China. The PC device temporarily reduced production due to emergencies. The PC market took advantage of the trend. The PC factory led the market. The ex-factory price rose first in 300 yuan and then in 400 yuan. The Shandong PC factory raised the ex-factory price for three consecutive days, boosting the market for more time. At present, the equipment load of domestic, domestic and PC production enterprises is relatively low, about 68%. Among them, Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. operates with a single line of 300,000 tons/year, with a total load of about 30%. The 100,000-ton/year plastic plant of China Blue State resumed operation in early September with a total load of 60% to 70%. Shanghai Mitsubishi 100,000 Ton/Year Plant Parking Maintenance; Ganning Petrochemical's 70,000-ton/year plant is still in the parking stage and has no driving plan. Yanhua's 60,000-ton/year plant was stopped for maintenance on August 15 and is scheduled to restart in mid-to-late September.

polycarbonate peak season demand is not strong,

PC supply is expected to increase, downstream demand by the domestic macroeconomic growth slowdown and the impact of the outbreak, limited growth, will exert pressure on the PC market. The impact of "power rationing" has weakened, but the downstream demand season is not strong, and new orders for terminal factories have not reached the level of the same period in previous years. The demand side is weak and difficult to give. The PC market has brought strong support. From the perspective of the downstream automobile industry, from January to August, although my country's automobile production and sales increased by 4.8% and 1.7% year-on-year, the growth rate slowed down significantly.

In addition, exports are also difficult to drive the PC market to continue to rise. Most PCs are low-end and medium-end products. It is possible to export to Southeast Asia, but it is difficult to continue to expand outward. This has restrained China's PC export volume to a certain extent. From January to July, China's PC exports totaled 182,600 tons, down about 11% from the same period last year. The cumulative import was 815,000 tons, basically the same as last year. The lack of entry and exit has also increased the contradiction between supply and demand in China's PC market.
polycarbonate cost upside down difficult to change


Since mid-to-late July, the raw material bisphenol A market has continued to fluctuate and rise, with prices rising from 11,700 yuan to 13,200 yuan, squeezing PC profit margins. Statistics show that in the first half of the year, the average profit per ton of products in the PC industry was 617 yuan, the best level in the same period in the past three years, but only 43 yuan in July. After August, PC enterprises began to lose money. In September, they lost nearly 900 yuan. Later, due to the rise in market prices, they now lost 723 yuan. An important factor

the reversal of the bisphenol A market is the gradual increase in downstream operating rates, while bisphenol A manufacturers actively support the market without production and marketing pressure. In addition, major manufacturers have stopped for maintenance, Zhejiang Petrochemical auction prices continue to rise, making the BPA market center of gravity rising. In the future, the overall construction of bisphenol A downstream epoxy resin and PC enterprises is relatively stable, and the demand for bisphenol A still exists. At present, spot circulation is relatively stable, and with cost support, traders are below willingness. In addition, the auction price of an enterprise in East China has further risen sharply, and the holder is optimistic. It is expected that the bisphenol A market may rise further in the later period. It is unlikely that PC will wait for the downstream, and there is little hope that PC companies' 'Golden Nine' will turn into profit.