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[Industry Focus]：Vinyl acetate market "up" sound constantly, who is the driving force behind the price rise?

Read： 66 Time：2months ago Source：Jin Lianchuang, Yi Tianxia

Recently, the domestic vinyl acetate market has ushered in a wave of rising prices, especially in East China, vinyl acetate price climbed to a high of 5600-5650 yuan/ton, and some traders due to the scarcity of supply, the offer price is rising, the market bullish atmosphere is strong. This phenomenon is not accidental, but a variety of factors intertwined, the result of the joint action.

2024年国内VAM价格走势.jpg

Data source: Jin Lianchuang

supply-side contraction: overhaul schedule and market expectations

from the supply side, the maintenance plans of a number of vinyl acetate manufacturers have become an important factor in driving up prices. For example, companies such as Celanese and Chuanwei plan to overhaul their equipment in December, which will directly reduce market supply. At the same time, although Beijing Dongfang plans to resume production, its products are mainly used for its own use and cannot fill the market gap. In addition, considering the early Spring Festival this year, the market generally expects that the consumption in December will be higher than in previous years, which further aggravates the tight supply situation.

Data source: Jin Lianchuang

demand-side growth: new consumption and procurement pressure

on the demand side, the downstream market for vinyl acetate showed strong growth momentum. New consumption continues to emerge, making the procurement pressure continue to increase. In particular, the execution of some large orders has had a significant push-up effect on market prices. However, it is worth noting that the ability of small terminal factories to bear high prices is relatively limited, which limits the room for price increases to a certain extent. Nevertheless, the overall growth trend of the downstream market still provides strong support for the rise of vinyl acetate market price.

醋酸乙烯下游需求.jpg

Data source: Jin Lianchuang

cost factors: low-load operation of calcium carbide enterprises

in addition to supply and demand factors, cost factors are also one of the important reasons driving up the price of vinyl acetate market. The low load of calcium carbide production plants due to cost issues has led most companies to choose to export vinyl acetate to produce downstream products, such as polyvinyl alcohol. This trend not only increases the market demand for vinyl acetate, but also further pushes up its production costs. In particular, the decline in the load of calcium carbide enterprises in the northwest region has led to an increase in in stock inquiries in the market, further exacerbating the pressure on prices.

Market Outlook and Risk

in the future, the market price of vinyl acetate is still facing some upward pressure. On the one hand, contraction on the supply side and growth on the demand side will continue to provide impetus for price increases; on the other hand, rising cost factors will also have a positive impact on market prices. However, investors and practitioners also need to be alert to potential risk factors. For example, the replenishment of imported goods, the implementation of the maintenance plans of major production enterprises and the advance negotiations of downstream factories based on the expected increase in the market may have an impact on market prices.

Source: Jinlianchuang, Huayi World

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