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[Industry Focus]：PTA prices hit a new low, the market may be weak shock.

Read： 364 Time：2months ago Source：Zhuochuang Chemical

1. market overview: August PTA price innovation low

in August, PTA Price after a significant round of broad decline, the price is a new low in 2024. This trend is mainly due to the significant accumulation of PTA inventory in the month, and in the absence of large-scale equipment to stop production, the inventory backlog problem is difficult to effectively alleviate. At the same time, the decline in the international crude oil market failed to provide effective cost support for PTA, further exacerbating the downward pressure on its price.

2. supply-side analysis: high production capacity, new inventory highs

at present, PTA capacity operation rate remains at a high level, the supply of goods is extremely abundant. Since 2024, PTA monthly production has increased significantly compared with the same period last year, and is expected to reach a record high. This high production directly led to a new high in PTA social inventory, which became a key factor in suppressing in stock prices. Although the high operating rate of the downstream polyester industry has slowed down the accumulation of PTA inventory to a certain extent, if there is no large-scale PTA device centralized maintenance and production reduction, the situation of oversupply is difficult to reverse, the market is pessimistic about the follow-up trend of PTA.

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3. demand-side analysis: demand is less than expected, polyester starts low.

Weakness on the demand side is another important reason for the fall in PTA prices. Rising upfront polymerization costs have led to a decline in polyester product profits, forcing some polyester factories to adopt a strategy of reducing production and price. This chain reaction led to a continuous decline in polyester operating rates, and most polyester factories joined the ranks of production cuts in August, resulting in a significant reduction in PTA demand. The low willingness of polyester factories to receive goods, mostly to consume inventory and long-term supply, further exacerbating the imbalance between supply and demand of PTA.

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4. Inventory Pressure and Market Expectations

based on the current supply and demand situation, PTA is expected to accumulate about 300000 tons in August, so the price fell widely. Looking ahead, the supply pressure on the PTA market remains significant, mainly due to the limited number of units that can be centrally serviced and the fact that most large units have been serviced during the year. It is expected that the subsequent PTA monthly output will remain at a high level of more than 6 million tons/month. Even if the downstream polyester starts to pick up, it will be difficult to fully digest such a high output, and the supply pressure will continue.

5. Cost Support and Weak Oscillation Pattern

although the market is facing many negative factors, the international crude oil market still provides some cost support for PTA. At the macro level, fears of a global recession have led to a general decline in commodity prices, but the expected rise in interest rate cuts has brought a touch of warmth to the market. On the supply side, geopolitical risk uncertainty and OPEC's policy of production cuts continue to affect the oil market. On the demand side, crude oil depot expectations remain. Under the combined action of these factors, the oil market presents a trend of long-short interweaving, and PTA processing fees fluctuate in the range of 300-400 yuan/ton. Therefore, despite the huge supply pressure, the cost support of international crude oil may still make the PTA market show a weak shock pattern.

6. Conclusions and Prospects

in summary, the subsequent PTA market will face greater supply pressure, and the weakness of the demand side will further exacerbate the pessimism of the market. However, the cost support role of international crude oil can not be ignored, which may slow down the decline of PTA price to a certain extent. Therefore, the PTA market is expected to enter a weak shock stage.

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