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[Industry Focus]：Global PC industry reshuffle, how China counter attack into the "leader"?

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1. global PC device shutdown tide far-reaching impact

in recent years, the global PC (polycarbonate) industry has experienced a significant wave of device shutdowns. From 2012 to 2024, a total of six large PC units were shut down, involving an annual production capacity of up to 685000 tons. This change is mainly concentrated in key regions such as Asia, North America and Western Europe. Specifically, well-known enterprises such as Chongqing Changfeng, Japan's Light, Singapore's Teijin, Dow of the United States, SABIC and Germany's Shengxi Olympic have all made moves. This round of shutdown not only reduces the total supply of global PC, but also indicates that more old devices may be eliminated in the future, further affecting the flow of global PC supply and market pattern.

全球六套大型PC装置关闭.jpg

2. China PC capacity expansion against the trend, occupy the global leading position

contrary to the global trend of production reduction, China's PC production capacity has shown a strong growth trend. At present, China's PC production capacity has occupied more than 45% of the global market, and most of the new production capacity is concentrated after 2019, and the average service life of the equipment is only 7.5 years, showing a high degree of modernization and efficiency. More importantly, China's PC industry has achieved a high degree of scale and integrated development. As of the first half of 2024, there are 17 sets of PC production equipment in China, with a total production capacity of 3.74 million tons/year. Among them, more than 80% of the production enterprises are equipped with the main raw material bisphenol A device, and the proportion of industrial chain integration is more than 95%. This advantage is unique in the world, which greatly reduces the production cost and lays a solid foundation for the expansion of the export market.

国内PC产能及一体化产能统计图.jpg

3. export market is booming, China's PC goes to the world

china's PC industry not only dominates the domestic market, but also has made remarkable achievements in overseas markets. In recent years, domestic PC factories have actively expanded the international market, and the export volume has achieved a leap growth. From an average of about 250000 tons per year before 2020, it will break through the 300000-ton mark for the first time in 2021 and continue to grow. In 2023, China's PC exports reached 362500 tons, an increase of 24.61 percent over the same period last year, showing strong overseas market demand and competitiveness. It is estimated that the annual export volume will exceed 450000 tons in 2024, continuing to set a new historical record, and the influence of China's PC in the international market is increasing day by day.

2017-2024年中国PC出口量趋势变化图.jpg

4. domestic PC in stock market under pressure, cautiously optimistic outlook

however, in sharp contrast to the prosperity of the domestic PC export market, the domestic PC in stock market is facing greater downward pressure. since July, affected by various factors, PC in stock Price continued to decline, some brands such as Shanghai Covestro, Jiaxing emperor and other prices fell significantly. After the market, the upstream bisphenol A market weakness is difficult to change, the cost end support weakened, at the same time, the domestic polymerization plant load is stable and small, but the demand side is weak, it is difficult to effectively boost the market.

PC 主流牌号价格表.jpg

Therefore, in the short term, the imbalance between supply and demand in the PC market may continue, and the market is expected to continue its low consolidation trend. Nevertheless, considering the global competitiveness and export potential of China's PC industry, there is still a lot of room and opportunities for development in the long run.

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