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[Industry Focus]：The downward trend of acetone prices has not stopped, where is the acetone market going?

Read： 390 Time：3months ago Source：Baichuan Yingfu

1. East China acetone market price diving

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since late July, in East China acetone price experienced a significant decline in the market. According to market monitoring data, the price of acetone began to jump from the high level at the beginning of the month, and the cumulative decline at the end of the month was close to 1,000 yuan. Specifically, the East China acetone market fell from 7850 yuan/ton on July 1 to 7000 yuan/ton on July 28, a drop of 10.83 per cent. This decline not only reflects the significant changes in the relationship between supply and demand in the market, but also reveals the shaking of market participants' confidence in the future market.

2. supply and demand imbalance leads to market pressure

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in July, the imbalance between supply and demand in the acetone market was the main reason for the price drop. From the supply side, some phenol ketone plants in East China started higher, acetone output increased, resulting in excess market supply. At the same time, the phenomenon of terminal accumulation is serious, and the inventory once rose to more than 30000 tons, which further aggravated the supply pressure of the market. In addition, some small downstream demand is not high, the participation of speculators is reduced, also affected the overall level of demand in the market.

Weak 3. Downstream Demand and Substitution Effects

on the demand side, the market demand for acetone's main downstream products such as isopropanol, MMA, and MIBK did not show significant growth. Isopropyl alcohol market to maintain the off-season business model, in stock procurement is limited, MIBK new production capacity although gradually released, but not yet fully opened, and the market price fell sharply, profitability weakened, MMA, a major procurement of southern Jiangsu unplanned parking maintenance, affecting the flow of some acetone. In addition, due to the high price of acetone, some small downstream customers turned to other alternatives such as refined methyl ester, methyl acetate and butanone, further reducing the demand for acetone.

4. Phenol Ketone Industry Profit and Acetone Price Relationship

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from the perspective of the profitability of the phenolic ketone industry, although most phenolic ketone factories achieved profitability in July, the decline in acetone prices did not fully reflect its cost pressure. The phenol market is relatively strong, the price remains above 8300 yuan/ton, and the tight supply situation is difficult to alleviate for the time being. This limits the price of acetone to a certain extent, because acetone in excess supply to undertake the pressure of pure benzene decline. However, with the moderate downward movement of phenol prices, the supporting force of acetone prices has also weakened significantly.

5. Outlook and Price Forecast

although the acetone market experienced a deep decline in late July, it has recently attracted some exploratory purchases from downstream customers. At the same time, the phenol ketone device returned to the break-even line, and the downward momentum of acetone weakened. Taking into account the current market supply and demand situation and future trends, it is expected that the price of acetone in East China will fluctuate between 6,500-6,850 yuan/ton in August.

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