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[Industry Focus]：The price of acrylic acid stabilized after rising in July, and the start-up rate was lowered in August. How will the future develop?

Read： 469 Time：3months ago Source：Olefins and high-end downstream

1. acrylic acid market in July

in July, domestic acrylic price after the rise at the beginning of the month to the mid-month after the temporary stable operation, the end of the month showed a weak trend. At the beginning of the month, by the raw material end propylene market volatility upward impact, acrylic cost side to get good support, driving the market price rose significantly. However, with the rising prices, downstream enterprises in the early replenishment, gradually turn to digest contracts or inventory-based, the market trading atmosphere significantly weakened, so the price remained stable. At the end of the month, the order increment of downstream factories was limited and the purchasing enthusiasm was low, which led to the pressure of shipment for acrylic acid production enterprises and the trend of weak market price fluctuation.

From the specific data, taking the East China market as an example, the average value of acrylic acid negotiations in July was 6276.19 yuan/ton, down 0.73 from June, showing a slight decrease in the market price center of gravity.

7月份丙烯酸市场价格.jpg

Market Trend Analysis of Butyl Acrylate in 2.

Similar to the acrylic acid market, the butyl acrylate market also showed a trend of first falling and then rising in July. The decline in the price of raw material butanol has effectively alleviated the pressure on the cost end of butyl acrylate. At the same time, a number of butyl acrylate factories such as Ningbo Formosa Plastics, Taixing Shengke, Jiangsu Sanmu and other equipment maintenance and negative operation, resulting in capacity utilization of less than 60%, further affecting the market supply.

Although the terminal tape master roll, acrylic emulsion factory device load is relatively stable, but more to consumption contract-based, in stock demand more to low-cost just need to buy-based, domestic demand performance in general. Affected by the cost side and supply and demand, the domestic butyl acrylate price as a whole showed a trend of first decline and then rise, the average price of the East China market reached 9146 yuan/ton.

3. Downstream Commencement and Forecast

according to the current market trends, it is expected that some acrylic acid and butyl acrylate factories will be shut down or overhauled in August, including Shandong Hengzheng, Shenyang Wax, Zhejiang Satellite, Shandong Hongxin, CNOOC, Yangzi BASF, etc. Among them, Shandong Hengzheng and Shenyang Wax have been shut down for a long time, and the rest of the factories are expected to have equipment maintenance expectations in August. This will result in August acrylic acid and butyl acrylate industry operating rate is estimated at about 71.75 and 60.52, respectively, production and capacity utilization will decline slightly.

7月我国丙烯酸生产企业平均开工情况.jpg

8月我国丙烯酸生产企业平均开工情况.jpg

4. Demand Outlook

the advent of the traditional off-season and the seasonal weakness of mid-year demand, coupled with poor macroeconomic performance and weak real estate development, make it difficult for the demand for acrylic acid and esters to improve significantly in the short term. It is expected that in August, under the background of weak overall demand, the market prices of acrylic acid and butyl acrylate may continue to fluctuate within a narrow range.

5. Summary

to sum up, the domestic acrylic acid and butyl acrylate market in July showed a trend of rising first and then stabilizing and then weakening under the action of multiple factors. In August, upstream and downstream or still maintain the game state, the overall demand weak background, the narrow range of market prices or will become the norm.

Source: Olefins and high-end downstream

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