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[Industry Focus]：Inventory low, phenol acetone market ushered in a turnaround?

Read： 469 Time：6months ago Source：百川盈孚

Fundamental Analysis of 1. Phenolic Ketones

in May 2024, phenol and acetone the market is affected by the start-up of the 650000-ton phenol ketone plant in Lianyungang and the end of the overhaul of the 320000-ton phenol ketone plant in Yangzhou, and the market supply expectations have changed. However, due to low terminal inventory, the inventory of phenol and acetone in East China remained at 18000 tons and 21000 tons respectively, close to the low level in three months. This situation makes the market to buy gas has rebounded, for the price of phenol and acetone has brought some support.

2023-2024年华东港口苯酚、丙酮库存走势统计.jpg

2. price trend analysis

at present, the domestic prices of phenol and acetone are on the low side in the international market. In the face of this situation, domestic companies are actively seeking overseas export opportunities to ease the supply pressure in the domestic market. From the export data, from May to June, China has accumulated about 11000 tons of phenol export orders waiting for delivery. This trend is expected to continue in the next period of time, thereby boosting the price of the domestic phenol market to a certain extent.

2023-2024年酚酮工厂理论盈利及行业开工率统计.jpg

In terms of acetone, although Dalian and a small amount of Zhejiang goods will arrive next week, considering the restart of the two phenol ketone factories in Jiangsu and the delivery of the acetone contract, the delivery speed of the warehouse is expected to slow down gradually. This means that the supply pressure of the acetone market will be eased, providing some support for the price of acetone.

3. profit and loss analysis

recently, the fall in the price of phenol has led to a slight loss of high-cost phenol ketone companies. According to the data, as of May 11, 2024, the single ton loss of non integrated phenol ketone plant reached 193 yuan/ton. However, considering the small number of available sources of phenol at the terminal and the arrival time of imported Saudi goods, it is expected that the phenol market will be destocked next week. This factor will help boost the price of the phenol market and have a positive impact on the profitability of phenol ketone companies.

For the acetone market, although its price is relatively stable, considering the overall supply and demand situation of the market and the easing of supply pressure in the future, it is expected that the acetone market price will maintain a range consolidation trend. The price of acetone at East China Wharf is forecast to be between 8100-8300 yuan/ton.

4. follow-up development analysis

based on the above analysis, it can be seen that the phenol and acetone market will be affected by many factors in the future. On the one hand, the increase in the supply side will exert certain pressure on market prices; on the other hand, factors such as low inventories, a rebound in gas purchases, and the accumulation of export orders will also provide support for market prices. Therefore, it is expected that the phenol and acetone market will show a trend of shock consolidation.

Source: Baichuan Yingfu

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