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[Industry Focus]：Epoxy resin market outlook: underemployment leads to tight supply, prices may rise first and then stabilize.

Read： 326 Time：9months ago Source：隆众资讯

During the Spring Festival holiday, most of the domestic epoxy resin factory installations are in a state of shutdown and overhaul, and the capacity utilization rate will reach about 30%. Most of the downstream terminal enterprises are in a state of delisting and vacation, and there is no purchase demand for the time being. It is expected that after the festival, some just need to support the market center of gravity strong operation, but the sustainability is limited.

1. cost surface analysis:

1. Bisphenol A market trend: Bisphenol A market presents a narrow range of shocks, which is mainly due to the stability of raw material supply and the relative stability of the demand side. Although changes in international crude oil prices may have a certain impact on the cost of bisphenol A, considering the wide range of uses of bisphenol A, its price is less affected by a single raw material.

2. Epichlorohydrin market dynamics: Epichlorohydrin market may appear first up and then down the trend. This is mainly due to the gradual recovery of downstream demand after the festival and the recovery of logistics and transportation. However, as supply increases and demand gradually stabilizes, prices are likely to retrace.

3. International crude oil trend forecast: International oil prices may have room to rise after the holiday, which is mainly affected by OPEC production cuts, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the increase in global economic growth forecasts. This will provide cost support for the upstream raw material of epoxy resin.

2. supply side analysis:

1. Epoxy resin plant capacity utilization rate: During the Spring Festival, most of the epoxy resin plant equipment stopped for maintenance, and the capacity utilization rate dropped significantly. This is mainly a strategy adopted by enterprises to maintain the balance of supply and demand in the post-holiday market.

2023-2024年中国环氧树脂产业链产能利用率走势图.jpg

2. New Capacity Release Plan: In February, there was no new capacity release plan in the epoxy resin market. This means that the supply of the market will be limited in the short term, which may have a certain supporting effect on the price.

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3. Terminal demand follow-up situation: after the festival, downstream coatings, wind power, electronic and electrical industry may have a stage of just need to fill the warehouse. This will bring some demand support for the epoxy resin market.

3. market trends forecast:

considering the factors of cost and supply, it is expected that the epoxy resin market may rise first and then decline after the festival. In the short term, the downstream industry's just need to fill positions and production enterprises to push up a small increase may push up the market price. However, with the end of phased replenishment and the gradual increase in supply, the market may gradually return to rationality and prices may be corrected.

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