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[Industry Focus]：Post-holiday chemical market outlook: supply and demand changes and impacts of bisphenol A, epoxy resin and PC

Read： 518 Time：9months ago Source：卓创化工

At the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the chemical industry is about to usher in a new round of production and market demand. For major chemical products such as bisphenol A, epoxy resin and PC, what changes have been brought about this holiday season, and what future trends do they indicate?

First of all, bisphenol A and PC devices basically maintained normal production during the holidays, but some epoxy resin companies chose to work on holiday. This choice reflects the demand situation and business strategy of different products in the current market environment.

Since the fourth quarter of 2023, the gross profit of bisphenol A plant has continued to lose, and the industry's operating load is insufficient. During the Spring Festival, although some units undergo routine maintenance or shutdown, the overall start-up load rate is expected to drop by 1 to 2 percentage points. At present, the social inventory of bisphenol A is mainly concentrated in the production enterprises, while the inventory of middlemen and downstream factories is generally low. This situation may bring some purchasing demand after the festival, but overall, the market price fluctuation space may be relatively limited in the short term.

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The situation in the PC industry is relatively positive. Although some of the installations are underoperated, the industry's operating load is expected to be adjusted steadily upward as some of the parking installations are expected to resume. During the Spring Festival, PC devices basically maintained normal production and the industry started stable. Downstream small and medium-sized factories have gradually withdrawn from the market before the festival, and large factories also plan to have a holiday around December 27. However, PC companies are expected to resume production around the ninth day of the first month, and most factories will resume stable production around the fifteenth day of the first month as the start-up load gradually increases.

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Unlike BPA and the PC industry, the epoxy industry faces greater challenges during the Spring Festival. Due to the slow recovery of terminal demand, the domestic epoxy resin production capacity continues to grow, the market supply and demand pressure is increasing, and the profit margins of various factories are compressed. Many factories choose to work during the Spring Festival holiday, especially in liquid resin, where the number of parking is large and the time is long. Although some of the normal production plants adjusted the production load, the vast majority of solid resin plants also chose to stop. When returning to the market after the year, most resin factories plan to resume work around the 7th or 8th of the first month and start production and delivery of pre-orders. The small and medium-sized enterprises downstream of the resin plan to resume production near the 15th of the first month.

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On the whole, the impact of the Spring Festival holiday on the chemical industry is mainly reflected in the temporary adjustment of production and demand. Considering the limited overall trading day in February, factories take orders in advance to reduce inventory pressure. The current cost-side support is strong and has a supportive effect on the bottom of the market. It is expected that the average price of related products will rise in a narrow range in February, but the price amplitude space may be limited in the short term after the festival. Particular attention needs to be paid to the recovery on the demand side, which will have a decisive impact on future market trends.

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