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[Industry Focus]：Market supply is tight, MIBK market prices rise

Read： 763 Time：11months ago Source：百川盈孚

Towards the end of the year, the MIBK market price rose again, the supply of goods in the market was tight, and the cargo holders were in a strong mood. As of today, the average price of the MIBK market was 13500 yuan/ton.

MIBK市场价格.jpg

1. Market supply and demand

supply end: the plant overhaul schedule in the Ningbo area will lead to limited MIBK production, which usually means a reduction in market supply. In anticipation of this, the two major producers have begun to build up inventories, further limiting the availability of goods in the market. The unstable start-up of the plant may be caused by a variety of factors, including equipment failure, raw material supply problems or adjustment of production plan. These factors may affect the production and quality of MIBK, thereby affecting the market price.

Demand side: downstream demand is dominated by just-needed purchases, indicating that the market demand for MIBK is relatively stable but lacks growth momentum. This may be due to smooth production activity in the downstream industry, or MIBK substitutes taking a certain share of the market. The low enthusiasm for buying into the market may be due to the market wait-and-see sentiment caused by the expectation of price rise, or the downstream enterprises are cautious about the future market trend.

2. Cost-profit analysis

cost side: the strong performance of the raw material acetone market supports the cost end of MIBK. As one of the main raw materials of MIBK, the price fluctuation of acetone directly affects the production cost of MIBK. Stability on the cost side is important for MIBK producers as it helps to maintain stable profit margins and reduce market risk.

Profit side: the increase in MIBK prices has helped to increase the profit level of producers. However, due to the lacklustre performance of the demand side, excessive prices may lead to a decline in sales, thus offsetting the increase in profits from higher prices.

3. Market Mentality and Expectations

holder mentality: the strong sentiment among stockholders may be due to their expectation that market prices will continue to rise, or their desire to offset potential cost increases by raising prices.

Industry expectations: it is expected that the overhaul of the device next month will lead to a reduction in the supply of goods in the market, which may further push up the market price. At the same time, the low level of industry inventories means that the market is tight, which also provides support for price increases.

4. Market Outlook

the MIBK market is expected to continue to run strongly, possibly due to a combination of supply constraints, cost support and the push-up sentiment of stockholders. These factors may be difficult to change in the short term, so the market may maintain a strong pattern. The mainstream negotiation price may be between 13500-14500 yuan/ton, this forecast is based on the current market supply and demand situation, cost profit situation and market expectations and other factors. However, the actual price may be affected by a variety of factors, including policy adjustments, emergencies, etc., so it is necessary to pay close attention to market dynamics.

Source: Baichuan Yingfu

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