[Industry Focus]：Bisphenol A market in the third quarter, the lack of positive factors in the fourth quarter, the downward trend is obvious

In the first and second quarters of 2023, China's domestic bisphenol A market was relatively weak, and in June it slipped to a new low of nearly five years, and the price fell to 8700 yuan per ton. However, after entering the third quarter, the bisphenol A market ushered in a wave of continuous rise, and the market price also rose to the highest level this year, reaching 12050 yuan per ton. Although prices rose to high levels, downstream demand did not keep up, so the market re-entered the stage of shock decline.

As of the end of September 2023, the mainstream negotiated price of bisphenol A in East China was about 11500 yuan per ton, an increase of 2300 yuan compared with the beginning of July, an increase of 25%. In the third quarter, the average market price was 10763 yuan per ton, up 13.93 per cent from the previous quarter, but actually trending downward compared with the same period last year, by 16.54 per cent.

In the first stage, the bisphenol A market showed an "N" trend in July.

In early July, due to the impact of continuous destocking in the early stage, the in stock circulation resources of bisphenol A are running out. Under such circumstances, manufacturers and middlemen actively supported the market, and some inquiries from downstream PC and middlemen for replenishment pushed the market price of bisphenol A up rapidly from 9200 yuan per ton to 10000 yuan per ton. During this period, Zhejiang Petrochemical's multiple rounds of bidding rose sharply, which also injected momentum into the upward market. However, in the middle of the year, due to the high price and the gradual digestion after replenishment in the downstream stage, the trading atmosphere of bisphenol A market began to fade. In the middle and late ten days, the holders of bisphenol A began to take profits, coupled with the shock of the downstream market, the in stock transaction of bisphenol A became poor. In order to cope with this situation, some middlemen and manufacturers began to make profits to ship, resulting in the negotiation price in East China falling back to 9600-9700 yuan per ton. In the second half of the year, due to the strong rise of two raw materials, phenol and acetone, the cost of bisphenol A was pushed up and the cost pressure on manufacturers increased. Towards the end of the month, manufacturers began to stand up, and the price of bisphenol A began to follow the cost increase.

2. In the second stage, from early August to mid-to-late September, the bisphenol A market continued to rebound, reaching the highest level of the year.

At the beginning of August, the market price of bisphenol A remained firm and gradually rose, driven by the strong rise of phenol and acetone. At this stage, the centralized maintenance of bisphenol A plants, such as Nantong Xingchen, Huizhou Zhongxin, Luxi Chemical, Jiangsu Ruiheng, Wanhua Chemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II plants, were all stopped in August, resulting in a sharp drop in market supply. However, due to the impact of early de stocking, the downstream rigid demand replenishment has kept pace, which has a positive impact on the market. The combination of cost and supply demand has made the bisphenol A market stronger and rising. After entering September, the performance of international crude oil was strong, driving pure benzene, phenol and acetone to continue to rise, and bisphenol A also rose. Producers' offer prices continue to rise and the market's in stock supply is tight. Downstream demand for National Day stocking also kept pace, all of which pushed the market price in mid-September to the highest point of 12050 yuan per ton this year.

3, the third stage, from the middle and late September to the end of the month, bisphenol A market high down

by mid-to-late September, as prices rose to high levels, downstream buying began to slow down, and only a small number of people with rigid needs would buy appropriately. The trading atmosphere in the market began to fade. At the same time, the prices of raw materials phenol and acetone have also begun to fall, and the cost support for bisphenol A has also begun to weaken. The wait-and-see mood between buyers and sellers in the market has become strong, and downstream market replenishment has become cautious. Double section stocking did not reach the expected goal. With the advent of the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, the mentality of some people who hold goods to ship has become obvious, and they mainly give priority to making profits to ship. By the end of the month, the focus of market negotiations had fallen back to 11500-11600 yuan per ton.

Fourth Quarter bisphenol A Market face many challenges

in terms of cost, the prices of raw materials phenol and acetone are still likely to fall, but due to the limitations of the average contract price and cost line, the room for decline is limited, so the cost support of bisphenol A is relatively limited.

In terms of supply and demand, Changchun Chemical will carry out maintenance from October 9 and is expected to end in early November. South Asia Plastics and Zhejiang Petrochemical are scheduled to be overhauled in November, while individual units are scheduled to be stopped for overhaul in late October. However, overall, the fourth quarter of bisphenol A plant losses still exist. At the same time, the operation of Jiangsu Ruiheng Phase II bisphenol A plant gradually stabilized in early October, and several new plants such as Qingdao Gulf, Hengli Petrochemical and Longjiang Chemical are also planned to be put into operation in the fourth quarter. By then, the production capacity and production of bisphenol A will be significantly increased. However, due to the weak recovery on the demand side, the market continues to be constrained, and the contradiction between supply and demand will intensify.

In terms of market mentality, due to insufficient cost support and short supply and demand performance, the downward trend of bisphenol A market is obvious, which makes the industry lack confidence in the future market. They are more cautious in their operations and mostly hold a wait-and-see attitude, which to a certain extent inhibits the pace of downstream purchases.

In the fourth quarter, the bisphenol A market lacks favorable factors, and the market price is expected to drop significantly compared with the third quarter. The main concerns of the market include the commissioning progress of new devices, the rise and fall of raw material prices and the follow-up of downstream demand.