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[Industry Focus]：PTA gains are beginning to show, with changes in production capacity and crude oil trends affecting both

Read： 220 Time：16months ago Source：生意社

Recently, the domestic PTA market has shown a slight recovery trend. As of August 13, the average price of PTA market in East China reached 5914 yuan/ton, and the weekly price rose by 1.09. This upward trend has been affected by many factors to a certain extent, and will be analyzed in the following aspects.

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In the case of low processing fees, the recent increase in unexpected maintenance of PTA plants has led to an increasing reduction in supply. As of August 11, the operating rate of the industry remained at about 76%. Among them, Dongying Weilian PTA plant with a total capacity of 2.5 million tons/year was temporarily shut down for some reason, Zhuhai Yinglishi 2# plant with a capacity of 1.25 million tons/year dropped to 70%, while Xinjiang Zhongtai 1.2 million tons/year plant was also under shutdown maintenance and is scheduled to restart around August 15. The shutdown and maintenance of these devices and the reduction of negative operations have led to a reduction in market supply, which has provided a certain impetus for the increase in PTA prices.

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Recently, the crude oil market as a whole has shown a trend of volatility, tightening supply has triggered a rise in oil prices, which has formed a favorable support for the PTA market. As of August 11, the settlement price of the main U.S. WTI crude oil futures contract was $83.19/barrel, while the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $86.81/barrel. This trend has led to an increase in the cost of PTA production, which has indirectly driven up market prices.

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The operating rate of the downstream polyester industry remained at a high level during the year, about 90%, and continued to maintain the rigid demand for PTA. At the same time, the atmosphere of the terminal textile market is slightly warming up. Some textile and garment factories hold high expectations for the price of raw materials in the future market, and gradually open the mode of inquiry and proofing. The capacity utilization rate of most weaving factories remains firm. At present, the weaving start-up rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is above 60%.

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In the short term, cost support factors still exist, coupled with low inventory of downstream polyester and stable production load, the fundamentals of the current PTA market are relatively good, and prices are expected to continue to rise. However, in the long run, with the gradual restart of PX and PTA units, the market supply will gradually increase, coupled with the general performance of terminal orders, the preparation of goods in the weaving link is generally concentrated in September, the willingness to replenish the stock at high prices is insufficient, and the expectation of weakening polyester production and sales may pose a certain drag on the PTA market and may limit further price increases. Therefore, investors need to fully consider the impact of these factors when considering market conditions in order to develop a reasonable investment strategy.

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