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[Industry Focus]：The octanol market has risen sharply, and what is the follow-up trend?

Read： 521 Time：15months ago Source：百川盈孚

On August 10, the market price of octanol rose sharply. According to statistics, the average market price is 11569 yuan/ton, up 2.98 from the previous working day.

At present, the shipment volume of octanol and downstream plasticizer market has improved, and the mentality of operators has changed. In addition, an octanol plant in Shandong Province built up inventory in the later storage and maintenance program, with small out-of-market sales. The supply of the octanol market remains tight. Yesterday, Shandong large factory limited auction, downstream factories actively participate in the auction. Therefore, the trading price of Shandong Dachang has risen sharply, with an increase of about 500-600 yuan/ton, and the trading price of octanol market has reached a new high.

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Supply side: the inventory of octanol manufacturers is at a low level. At the same time, the market in stock circulation is tight, the market speculative atmosphere is strong, the market price of octanol may rise in a narrow range.

Demand side: some plasticizer manufacturers still have rigid demand, but the release of the terminal market is basically over, and the shipments of downstream plasticizer manufacturers are reduced, which limits the poor demand in the downstream market. Downstream purchases of natural gas are likely to decline as raw material prices rise. There is a risk that the market price of octanol will decline under negative constraints on the demand side.

Cost side: international crude oil prices rose at a high level, and the main downstream polypropylene futures prices rebounded slightly. With the shutdown of a plant in the region for maintenance, the reduction of in stock supply circulation, and the increase in the overall demand for propylene downstream, its positive impact will be further released, which will benefit the price trend of propylene. Propylene market prices are expected to continue to rise in the short term.

Raw material propylene market continues to rise, downstream enterprises just need to buy, octanol market in stock is tight, the market speculative atmosphere still exists. The octanol market is expected to fall after a narrow rise in the short term, with fluctuations of about 100-400 yuan/ton.

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