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[Industry Focus]：Comparison of monthly supply and demand data in China's acrylic eye market

Read： 638 Time：15months ago Source：金联创、隆众资讯

Due to the increase of domestic acrylonitrile production capacity, the contradiction between supply and demand has become increasingly prominent. Since last year, the acrylonitrile industry has been losing money and making a profit in less than a month. In the first quarter of this year, relying on the collective rise of the chemical industry, the loss of acrylonitrile decreased significantly. In mid-July, the acrylonitrile factory wanted to take the opportunity of centralized maintenance of equipment to break through the price, but it ended in failure. At the end of the month, it only increased by 300 yuan/ton. Factory quotations rose again in August, but the effect was not satisfactory. At present, quotations in some areas fell slightly.

丙烯睛及原料价格走势对比图.jpg

Source: Jinlianchuang

cost side: Since May, the market price of acrylonitrile raw material propylene has continued to fall sharply, and the fundamentals have been completely empty, resulting in a sharp drop in the cost of acrylonitrile. However, starting from mid-July, the raw material side began to rise significantly, but the acrylonitrile market was weak, resulting in a rapid expansion of profits below -1000 yuan/ton.

2022-2023年国内ABS装置开工率变化围.jpg

Source: Jinlianchuang

demand side: In terms of ABS, the main downstream product, ABS prices continued to fall in the first half of 2023 and factory production enthusiasm declined. From June to July, manufacturers concentrated on reducing production presale, resulting in a sharp drop in construction volume. Until July, the construction load of the factory increased, but the overall construction is still below 90%. Acrylic has the same problem. In the middle of the second quarter of this year, before entering the high temperature weather, the off-season atmosphere of the terminal weaving market came ahead of schedule. The overall order volume of weaving manufacturers decreased, and some weaving factories began to shut down frequently, resulting in the reduction of acrylic fibers again.

中国丙烯睛市场月度供需数据对比.jpg

Supply side: In August, the overall capacity utilization rate of the acrylonitrile industry increased from 60% to around 80%, and the significant increase in supply will be gradually released. Some of the low-priced imports negotiated in the early stage will also arrive in Hong Kong in August.

In general, the situation of excess supply of acrylonitrile will gradually become prominent again, and the market will continue to rise, and the in stock market will be difficult to ship. The industry has a strong wait-and-see mood. After the start-up of acrylonitrile plant, the operators lack confidence in the market prospect. In the medium to long term, they still need to pay attention to changes in raw materials and demand, as well as the determination of manufacturers to raise prices.

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