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[Industry Focus]：Cost side acetone support relaxed, MIBK market is difficult to improve in the short term, demand side changes into the key

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Since February, the domestic MIBK market has changed its early sharp rise pattern. With the continuous replenishment of imported goods, the tension on the supply side has been eased and the market has turned around. As of March 23, the mainstream negotiation range of the market is 16300-16800 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring data of the commercial society, the national average price on February 6 was 21000 yuan/ton, a record high in the year. As of March 23, it has fallen to 16466 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4600 yuan/ton, or 21.6.

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the supply pattern changes, the import volume is sufficient, since December 25, 2022 Zhenjiang Li Changrong 50000 tons/year MIBK plant shut down, 2023 domestic MIBK supply pattern has changed significantly, the first quarter is expected to produce 290000 tons, down 28% year-on-year, domestic losses are larger. However, the replenishment of imports accelerated. It is understood that China's imports of South Korea increased by 125 in January, and the total imports in February were 5460 tons, up 123 percent from the previous month. In the last two months of 2022, the surge was mainly affected by the expected tight domestic supply. The rally continued until early February. As of February 6, the market price soared to 21000 yuan/ton. However, with the phased increase in imports in January and a small amount of replenishment after Ningbo Juhua and Zhangjiagang Kailing and other installations were put into production, the market turned around in mid-February and continued to decline.

poor demand for raw material procurement support is limited, downstream demand for MIBK is limited, the terminal manufacturing industry is depressed, the acceptance of high-priced MIBK is limited, trading prices are gradually declining, traders are under pressure to ship, and it is expected to be difficult to improve. The actual orders in the market are declining, and most of the transactions are just small orders that need to be followed up.

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short-term demand is difficult to significantly improve, the cost of acetone support has also been relaxed, import supply replenishment continued to increase. In the short term, the domestic MIBK market will continue to decline and is expected to fall below 16000 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of more than 5000 yuan/ton. However, under the pressure of high pre-inventory prices and shipment losses for some traders, market quotations are uneven. It is expected that the East China market will discuss 16100-16800 yuan/ton in the near future, focusing on demand-side changes.

Source: Business News

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