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[Industry Focus]：Raw material bisphenol A low price is difficult to vibration, the formation of PC cost negative, the domestic PC market or further decline.

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Last week PC market weak volatility, raw material bisphenol A market horizontal operation, cost end support is not obvious, the mainstream brand market price weekly rise or fall of 50-950 yuan/ton.

1. market analysis

since the Spring Festival in, the domestic PC industry has been operating and its output has been rising, reaching the best level in recent years. However, the downstream demand has been slow to start after the festival, and the pressure on supply and demand has gradually increased. During the week, the ex-factory prices of domestic PC factories have been lowered by 300-400 yuan/ton. Some actual price adjustments have been relatively large. On Tuesday, Zhejiang factories closed four rounds of bidding, stable compared with last week, only on Tuesday, driven by the auction of Zhejiang factory, the atmosphere improved slightly. On Wednesday, affected by the continued downward adjustment of Shandong PC factory, the market atmosphere turned cold again. The industry's mentality continued to be bearish, mainly cautious and active in shipping, and the focus of negotiations gradually declined. However, the downstream buying did not follow up well and the firm offer was not easy.

2. raw material bisphenol A market situation

bisphenol A: Last week the domestic bisphenol A market narrow volatility. At the beginning of the week, the downstream epoxy resin and PC terminal demand followed up weak, coupled with weak cost support, weak market adjustment and operation, mainly maintaining contracts and destocking for bisphenol A consumption, few inquiries for new orders entering the market, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market was light. During the week, raw material phenol ketone continued to rise, bisphenol A cost support gradually increased, East China and Huangshan region had low intention under cost pressure, and the market trend was slightly deadlocked. However, the demand in North China and Shandong was scarce, and the market center of gravity fluctuated within a narrow range. As the price fell to a low level, the downstream bargain-hunting just needed to follow up and the inventory of the holders was gradually released. In the middle of the week, a factory in East China offered 10200 yuan/ton. Some traders in East China and Huangshan followed the price increase, and most of them remained on the sidelines. A petrochemical company in East China bid for first-class products for three rounds on Thursday. The price rose by 300 yuan/ton from the starting price. The confidence of the industry was boosted and the intention to lower the price weakened, but the actual single trading was still limited. The mainstream negotiation price in East China is 10,000-10,100 yuan/ton.

3. Aftermarket Forecast

cost:

Crude oil: It is expected that this week's international oil prices may have room to rise, geo-risks may enhance the supply side of the positive, while the major institutions on the demand outlook from indecisive to cautious optimism.

bisphenol A: upstream phenol acetone high volatility, bisphenol A cost support still exists, but the lack of downstream terminal orders, the demand end of the market is difficult to form support, and the current bisphenol A domestic capacity utilization rate is relatively high, the market supply is sufficient. Cost, supply and demand game under

It is expected that this week bisphenol A will continue to narrow the trend of volatility, focusing on the main manufacturers' production and marketing direction and upstream and downstream fluctuations.

Supply side:

since the beginning of the year, the domestic PC industry profit situation is good, in the production device to start most of the smooth, parking, production reduction device also has to restart, increase production plans, the industry operating rate in recent years the best level, in the total production capacity of more than 3 million tons of background, production also increased significantly, supply situation year-on-year is very loose.

Demand side:

the Spring Festival so far, terminal demand recovery is slow, downstream manufacturers orders are not good, pre-holiday raw material inventory digestion is slow, the current market low prices are difficult to attract buying, spot just need to trade limited.

on the whole: domestic PC factories have no latest price adjustment trends for the time being, the spot market performance is still light, the fundamental negative pressure is still too large, the industry mentality is still more bearish, the accompanying shipment operation continues, the downstream just needs to purchase does not change, and the transaction atmosphere is quiet. The domestic PC market is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term. After the market suggested to pay attention to the upstream bisphenol A trend.

Source: PC polycarbonate industry chain

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