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[Industry Focus]：Analysis of Aromatics Market Trend in 2022

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2022, aromatics and downstream markets show the characteristics of strong upstream and weak downstream. The price increase of toluene and xylene is the most noticeable in the industrial chain; the price of bisphenol A and MIBK in the downstream phenol ketone chain has the largest year-on-year decline. In terms of profits, the aromatics and downstream industry chain in 2022 also showed the characteristics of raw material strengthening and terminal softening. Toluene, xylene and toluene near the raw material end PX2022 profit growth is the largest, downstream phenol ketone chain bisphenol A 2022 profit decline is the largest, more than 8000 yuan/tonne. In terms of production capacity, although the expansion of large refining capacity has reached the end, but in addition to the small production capacity of aniline, aromatics and other downstream products have increased production. The expansion of PX and by-products such as pure benzene and phenol ketones is still in full swing.

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price: Toluene and xylene are near the feed (crude) end. On the one hand, crude oil rose sharply, on the other hand, driven by the increase in exports. In 2022, the price increase is the most noticeable in the industrial chain, exceeding 30%. Bisphenol A and MIBK in the downstream phenol ketone chain will gradually ease in 2022 due to the shortage of supply in 2021. The overall price trend of phenol ketone in the upstream and downstream chains is not optimistic, with the largest year-on-year decline in 2022, with a decline of more than 30%. In particular, the price increase in the chemical industry in 2021 is the highest in MIBK, and the price in 2022 is almost halved. Pure benzene and downstream chains perform tepid in 2022. As aniline supply continues to tighten, equipment emergencies and exports continue to increase, the relative price increase can be comparable to pure benzene, other downstream styrene, cyclohexanone, self-adipic acid, price increases are relatively moderate, especially pure benzene and the only self-lactam prices in the downstream chain fell year-on-year.

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profit: Toluene, xylene and toluene near the raw material end PX2022 profit growth is the largest, more than 500 yuan/tonne. Downstream phenol ketone chain bisphenol A 2022, driven by poor demand for its own supply growth and a decline in upstream phenol ketones, profit declined the most, exceeding 8000 yuan/tonne. In pure benzene and downstream chains, aniline is out of the cost side in 2022, with the largest year-on-year increase in profits. Other products, including raw material pure benzene, saw a year-on-year decline in profits; among them, due to overcapacity, sufficient market supply, weak downstream demand, large market decline, continued increase in corporate losses, and the largest decline in profits, nearly 1500 yuan/ton.

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capacity: 2022 refining has entered the end of capacity expansion, but the expansion of PX pure benzene, phenol ketone and other by-products is still in full swing. In the 2022 aromatics and downstream chains, all other products are growing except aniline production capacity of 40000 tons. This is also the main reason for the price increase of aromatics and downstream products in 2022. Although crude oil rose sharply in the first half of the year, the annual average price is still not ideal.

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