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[Industry Focus]：Analysis of the impact of styrene inventory changes from 2018 to 2022.

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As a key factor to guide the market trend, styrene terminal inventory trend is mainly affected by domestic and foreign equipment operation, downstream digestion speed, import and export data and other factors.

2018-2022 in

, the East China styrene main port inventory peak appeared in the first quarter of 2019 351500 tons, the lowest point appeared in the second quarter of 2018 21500 tons. In terms of data comparison, inventory levels are high for the full year 2019-2020, with average annual inventory levels of around 180000 tons and 250000 tons, respectively.
in terms of inventory performance in 2019, it soared to 351500 tons on March 13, a record high. The main reasons are: With the increase of domestic products, the import supply has increased significantly, and the monthly import in January was nearly 400000 tons. In addition, the rigid demand before and after the Spring Festival has shrunk significantly, and the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent. However, in the second quarter, there was also a rapid de-stocking phenomenon, as of early July, the decline was as high as 68%.

1. At the end of March in

, Yancheng had a major accident, and the mainstream reservoir area controlled the receiving volume;

2.3-May

for the Asian device centralized repair period, import supply significantly reduced;

3. The main downstream demand is very good, especially ABS,PS start high, some enterprises stage overload operation.

2020 is also a relatively special year for inventory trends. Judging from the annual data, it has hovered in the high range of 27-320000 tons for half a year. In the final analysis, it is the change in the domestic supply and demand pattern, with the growth rate of supply far exceeding the growth rate of demand. Before and after the traditional Chinese New Year in 2020, public health emergencies at home and abroad, domestic styrene downstream appeared rare large-scale production reduction. At the same time, Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hengli Dalian two major refining and chemical industry have been put into operation in the first quarter, China's new supply increased significantly. In addition, international demand has shrunk sharply, global supply is cyclically loose, imported styrene supply remains normal, and terminal inventories cannot be effectively digested.

,
from the 2022 East China styrene inventory trend, experienced the first quarter of the library-the second quarter of the rapid de-library-the second half of the low hovering process.

the first quarter of

is still a traditional cumulative inventory cycle. This year's highest point came on February 16, after the Chinese New Year holiday, with a whopping 174500 tons. The main reason is that in addition to the downstream production reduction during the Spring Festival and the slowdown in styrene digestion, the recovery of terminal demand after the Spring Festival is slow. In addition, the inventory and social inventory of the three major downstream enterprises remain high, and the inventory level of styrene port is rapidly rising.

in the second quarter of

into the depot stage, due to some of the major equipment in Europe and the United States out of service, resulting in international supply decline, import contraction while export turnover.

Since the third quarter, the inventory of major ports in East China has basically hovered in the range of. 6-99000 tons, with a minimum of 36000 tons on September 7. Although the overall performance of the domestic downstream is tepid, but China's styrene industry profitability is poor, long-term maintenance of low-load operation, long-term shortage of import supply, delayed arrival at the port. After the concentrated export in the second quarter, some ship cargoes were shipped for export in the second half of the year, further easing domestic supply pressure.

2023 is still a cycle of rapid expansion of styrene in China. With the self-sufficiency rate rising sharply and the degree of external dependence declining, the guidance of terminal inventory data will be further weakened at a later stage. The resonance guidance brought about by domestic macro-policy and energy-based trends, especially the upstream cost-side drive, as well as the production schedule of new domestic equipment, will be more critical.

Source: Global Chemical

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