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[Industry Focus]：Styrene prices are subject to macro-impact shocks and rise, but the weak supply and demand are suppressed. It is expected that the short-term price will fall mainly as follows.

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Last week, the styrene market price began to fluctuate in the middle of the week. The reasons for the increase are:

1. Monthly market delivery to fill short demand boost;

2. International oil prices and commodities rebounded;

to 27 delivery atmosphere basically ended, spot began to cool down, downstream actual procurement demand is weak.

demand side: the total output of the domestic ABS industry last week was 65,600 tons, down 400 tons from the previous week; the industry started 69.8%, down 0.6% from the previous week, last week Zhenjiang Qimei, Lejin Huizhou, Jilin Petrochemical, Daqing, LG Yongxing device load reduction, Shandong Haijiang continued to stop, the overall industry operating rate slightly lower. PS starts are expected to rise slightly this week, while ABS and EPS are expected to change little.

ABS产能.jpg

Cost side: Last week's overall oil price volatility, the market has no direction, and the intraday volatility is large. The core reasons for oil price fluctuations are: first, the uncertainty from the Fed's interest rate hike meeting, the magnitude of the interest rate hike and the expected guidance are the key; second, the market is divided on the demand for gasoline in the United States, especially the existence of room for compression of refinery profits. U.S. gasoline prices fell, but crude oil remained strong, and the widening spread between the two oil prices led to a large amount of U.S. crude oil exports. Therefore, macro uncertainty, resulting in oil prices have no direction to speak of, to maintain a wide range of volatility. Pure benzene may be expected to fall back.

原油供应.jpg

supply side: last week, the device continued to increase the load, this week's stable production, parking device or restart, although there are also enterprises to reduce the negative, but the overall output this week is expected to increase by 2.34%.

the concentration of high-temperature holidays in southern China, some downstream enterprises such as household appliances are still in the off-season of traditional production. ABS manufacturers to reduce the negative space narrowed, with the regional market to increase the volume of goods, manufacturers to the warehouse speed or slow down or even have the risk of re-accumulation. In the short term, the fundamentals are weak, but there are uncertainties in the commodities and macro markets, and there are still variables in the later market. At present, the domestic supply of styrene continues to increase, downstream demand is less than the increase in styrene supply, and the weak supply and demand side of styrene suppresses the upward space of styrene. The probability of styrene follows the trend of crude oil, and the short-term styrene market is expected to fall mainly.

Source: Eighth Element Plastic Edition, Business Society

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