[Industry Focus]：Market Analysis of phenol ketone industry chain in July, phenol rebounded after falling

Analysis of Rise and Fall of Phenol Ketone Industry Chain in July

In addition, from the July phenolic ketone industry chain monthly average price month-on-month statistics, the decline of each product is mainly concentrated in 5%-15%; in addition, the most significant decline is bisphenol A, the monthly average price month-on-month lower 18.45%.

Market Analysis of Main Products in Phenol and Ketone Industry Chain

In July, the domestic pure benzene market showed a downward trend. In the first ten days of the year, the crude oil fluctuated and fell, the external plate of pure benzene fell widely, and the external plate lacked support for the market. Although the port's pure benzene inventory remained low, the downstream price pressure sentiment remained unchanged, and the pure benzene market in East China fell sharply. In the second half of the year, the external plate of crude oil and pure benzene remained firm, the market mentality improved, and the port's pure benzene inventory continued to decline, negotiations in the pure benzene market in East China rose widely, climbing to 9,600-9,650 yuan/ton, but as the end of the month approached, negotiations in the East China market quickly retreated to 8,850-8,900 yuan/ton. However, the volatility in North China is relatively limited, downstream just need to purchase, market regionalization differences exist. As of July 29, the East China pure benzene market was negotiated with reference to 8850-8900 yuan/ton, the mainstream quotation in the North China market was 8900-8950 yuan/ton, and the purchase intention of the downstream large order was 8800-8850 yuan/ton.

expects the 8-month pure benzene market range consolidation, volatility space is limited. Pure benzene import cost line down, the pure benzene market support is insufficient, while the downstream industrial chain losses continue, and downstream equipment maintenance plan is relatively concentrated, market demand reduction. As for pure benzene, the port's pure benzene inventory remains low, but the new maintenance plan for pure benzene is limited, and Shanghai Petrochemical, Qilu Petrochemical and other devices will be restarted one after another. The supply of pure benzene market has recovered and the fundamentals are generally empty. However, the international situation is changing, crude oil rises and falls disorderly and fluctuates widely, increasing the long-short game situation in the pure benzene market.

in July, supply and demand game intensified, propylene price volatility fell mainly. During the month, the price center of gravity of propylene gradually fell, the main negative as follows:

is that the current market of polypropylene is weak, the demand for polypropylene is weak, the powder/propylene price difference is small, the overall start of work remains low, and the buying is light.

Third, the main chemical downstream trend in the month is weak, earnings shrank sharply, or even losses, some of the main factories have shut down and negative, dragging down propylene demand;

is that the supply of propylene is abundant, especially in the first ten days, the maintenance of the propylene market is limited, and the import supply is increasing, and the overall competitive pressure is greater.

and the middle of the month and the end of the month, the propylene market rebounded slightly, and the main factors supporting the higher propylene price were the favorable supply side and the mentality of production enterprises. In the middle of the month, Hebei Haiwei temporarily shut down, Dongying individual refining and light hydrocarbon plant short stop, boost the market mentality. On the other hand, in terms of the mentality of the industry, due to the current pressure on the cost of propylene, the production enterprises have a firm attitude towards price support. With the gradual decline of propylene, the production enterprises are not willing to continue to fall, and the market is on the sidelines. As of the close of trading on the 29th, Shandong's mainstream turnover was 7300-7320 yuan/ton, down 365 yuan/ton from the close of last month. During the month, Shandong's price fluctuation range was 7150-7650 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 6.99%.

major European and American economies continue to raise interest rates, there is no significant progress in curbing inflation. Signs of economic pressure are accumulating. The global economic outlook is gloomy. The negative pressure on the economy in the face of crude oil will gradually increase. The fall in crude oil prices has suppressed market mentality, but propylene has fallen simultaneously and cost pressures have not decreased. On the supply side, on the one hand, focus on the release of new production capacity, Haiyi and Tianhong deposit production expectations, supply continues to increase, but on the other hand, as the cost pressure rises, dehydrogenation device maintenance increases, or can bring stage positive boost to the market. Demand side, the main downstream earnings performance is not good, so the overall level of construction in general, the market to buy cautious, the high price of propylene resistance mentality is strong, most of the main market, still need to pay close attention to the current trend of polypropylene and chemical downstream earnings changes. It is expected that the supply and demand pressure of the propylene market will not decrease in August, the general trend will first suppress and then rise, and the price center of gravity will decline slightly in July, but under the support of the cost side, the downward range may be relatively limited.

In July, the domestic phenol market fluctuated sharply, and the price plummeted after a rapid rebound, with a high and low price difference of 1725 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, the market supply and demand fundamentals increased pressure, downstream buying gas is weak, lack of inquiry intention support, market negotiations prices gradually weakened. At the same time, the upstream pure benzene price shock decline, but also make the market bearish sentiment increased, buying more cautious, and downstream factory shipments are not good, raw material purchase intention is weaker. The long-term shortage of buying gas has caused the pressure on the supply side to continue to increase, and the price of traders' shipments has accelerated. By the middle of the month, the market price has fallen in a panic, and the price in East China once fell to 8300 yuan/ton. However, with the excessive decline in prices, phenolic ketone production enterprises suffered serious losses, and the starting load of some units decreased or stopped work. Driven by this, the mentality of the operators was slightly stable. Some traders and downstream factories made bargain hunting, prompting a rapid rebound in prices. East China market prices rebounded to 9350-9400 yuan/tonne. Although prices rebounded rapidly, the situation of weak downstream demand has not improved, and the prices negotiated in the lower market are still dominated by weak shocks. As of July 28, the negotiated price of phenol in East China was 9050-9100 yuan/ton, down 1150 yuan/ton from June 30.

expects the domestic phenol market price range to fluctuate and adjust in August. After a sharp rebound, although downstream demand is still weak, the operating rate of phenolic ketones has also declined and the contradiction between supply and demand has been reduced. And raw materials pure benzene and propylene cost support exists, due to serious production losses, phenol prices continue to fall space is not large, but the demand side has always suppressed prices, is expected to maintain a range of volatility in August price adjustment.

In July, the propanone market fell and stabilized. As of the end of the month, the price in the East China market fell by 450 yuan/ton to 4850 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, international crude oil plummeted, commodities generally fell, raw material pure benzene continued to fall, cost support collapsed, confidence among cargo holders loosened, downstream buying was cautious, waiting for low-price purchases. In addition, downstream products also weakened, businesses had to let profits ship. In the first ten days, acetone port stocks increased, phenol ketone industry fell as a whole, and enterprise prices fell. However, downstream demand did not improve, purchasing intentions were flat, and businesses had to let profits ship. In the second half of the year, the port inventory declined, and the merchants were not willing to lower their output. With the unexpected shutdown of a 650,000-ton/year phenolic ketone plant in Zhejiang Petrochemical Company, the merchants expected the supply to decrease and the intention to raise prices appeared. Due to the high cost of the merchants and the low market price, the market rebounded steadily. Although the downstream demand did not increase much, the market gradually recovered under passive follow-up, and the transactions were mostly just in demand.

expects the propanone market to shake and sort out in August, which is easy to rise and difficult to fall. Zhejiang Petrochemical Company is stopping a set of phenolic ketone, Huizhou Zhongxin phenolic ketone is stopping, Yangzhou Shiyou phenolic ketone plant is scheduled to be overhauled at the beginning of the month, and Blue Star Harbin phenolic ketone plant is scheduled to start overhaul on the 5th. Affected by production losses, many enterprises have overhaul plans. Domestic supply will be greatly reduced, boosting market sentiment. However, downstream demand is difficult to increase, and the long-short atmosphere is deadlocked, the market is expected to continue to stabilize in August, and a small rebound is not ruled out.

July domestic bisphenol A market first fell and then rose. At the beginning of the month, the raw material phenol ketone further weakened, the downstream epoxy resin and PC markets continued to decline, the demand for raw materials remained sluggish, and the bisphenol A market had no favorable support. As the current price of bisphenol A was already below the cost, most factories were reduced to negative operation or stopped, mainly consuming inventory, and the overall start-up was maintained at around 70%, with the market price falling slightly. In the middle of the month, the market rose slightly, Zhejiang Petrochemical two auctions, a slight boost to the market, but the price change is not large, the downstream epoxy resin and PC market operation is still relatively weak, the market volume is difficult to support the bisphenol A market to form a favorable support. The raw material phenol and acetone dropped significantly. Therefore, the market has no positive support for the time being, and the immediate need for replenishment in the downstream cannot bring enough upward momentum to the market. In the short term, the market is watching or volatile. At the end of the month, the raw material level is favorable to support multi-plant maintenance, driving the raw material surface up, but the industrial chain epichlorohydrin and epoxy resin is not affected by it, the continuation of the downward adjustment, thus limiting the rise of bisphenol A space. Bisphenol A consolidation or weak operation in the short term. As of July 29, the reference negotiation of bisphenol A market in East China was around 11900-12000 yuan/ton, down 1100 yuan/ton from the negotiation price of 13000-13100 yuan/ton at the end of last month.

expects the domestic bisphenol A market to continue to fluctuate in August. Double raw material phenol and acetone support is still available, coupled with the gradual easing of the epidemic, downstream demand is expected to recover, to give bisphenol A bottom support, but the current market supply is relatively abundant, there is a certain resistance to the shipment of goods holders, the market wide volatility probability is greater, more attention to supply and demand changes.