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[Industry Focus]：In 2022, the Polycarbonate (PC) market declined as a whole, with supply exceeding demand and competition becoming more intense.

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2022 polycarbonate (PC) market as a whole for the downward trend, the decline intensified in June, the market broke down. In July, the decline in the domestic PC market gradually narrowed, the upstream bisphenol A market stopped falling, the cost side of the PC support effect is not strong. On the supply side, the supply side is abundant, the inventory is high, the demand side is low to buy, the overall improvement is limited.

overall, the market started flat in the first quarter, but began to rise in mid-to-early March, and prices hit a first-half high. In late March, the market began to gradually fall back, after which the market continued to fluctuate. In June, the market dominated, with some domestic materials falling below 16,000 yuan, while imported materials basically fell back to around 18,000 yuan, with the overall price basically hitting its lowest point since 2021.

the sharp rise in PC prices in mid-March in

was mainly affected by the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. The crude oil market rose sharply, stimulating the overall rise in commodity prices. With the sharp rise of raw materials, low-cost supply is gradually consumed, and high-cost supply is coming into the market one after another. In addition, PC manufacturers have increased their factory offers, which has helped the market bullish mentality, and traders have increased their offers. In the bullish market, downstream and some retail investors also entered the market to stock up, the overall market trading is good, traders speculation mentality is more obvious.

since the

, the raw material bisphenol A offer has been weak, driving the PC market to continue to decline. In the first half of the year, Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hainan Huasheng Bisphenol A new production capacity has entered the market. By the end of June, China's total production capacity of bisphenol A increased to 2.725 million tons/year, up 36.59% year on year. The sharp increase in bisphenol A production capacity has led to a continued weakening of the market and a sharp reduction in factory offers, up to 1000 yuan. Cost support weakened, PC imports and domestic materials were sharply lower.

demand, the domestic epidemic repeated, the overall weakening of demand, traders shipping pressure. Hainan Huasheng and Pingmei Shenma PC devices have been put into production, resulting in increased supply and demand contradictions, PC market break down, some imported materials offer has been upside down edge.

expects the domestic PC market as a whole to show a trend of first decline and then rise. With the arrival of the "golden nine silver ten", the PC market may have a wave of higher expectations, but the contradiction between supply and demand is still prominent, or restrict the PC price rise space.

in the first half of the year, the overall demand for PCs did not increase, and terminal consumption showed a gradual weakening trend. Plate, bucket industry operating rate gradually reduced, especially plate factory orders are scarce, the export market continues to be depressed. However, these areas are expected to be moderately repaired in the second half of the year. It can be concluded that the state's support policy will not be less, August to September release funds, various fields to resume work, promote the economy and other means will be the key. Therefore, the September downgrade and other policies have a certain probability, the demand will also play a certain role in promoting.

In addition, new energy vehicles are also positive, production has increased significantly, the PC market to form a lift.

but later upstream bisphenol A and PC at the same time there is expected to increase supply, the spot price is expected to continue to maintain a weak market in the short term. The PC industry has entered a full-scale surplus stage, the price war will become more intense, the past glory is difficult to reproduce.

Source: China Chemical Industry News, Business News

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