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[Industry Focus]:The acetic acid market is high before and low after, with a decline of 32.96%; The cost of phenol ketone factory is obviously under pressure, and the reduction of production and guaranteed price leads to the market overfall rebound.

Acetic acid market before high and after low


In the first half of the year, the acetic acid market trend was just the opposite of the same period last year, showing a high and low, with an overall decline of 32.96%. The leading factor driving the acetic acid market lower is the mismatch between supply and demand. After the addition of new capacity, the overall supply of acetic acid market increased, downstream demand has always been flat and unable to effectively digest.

上半年醋酸价格走势.jpg


the first half of the acetic acid market as a whole showed three fluctuations, the market average price from the beginning of the year's 6190 yuan (ton price, the same below), down to 4150 yuan. Among them, from the highest point of 6190 yuan at the beginning of the year to the lowest point of 3837.5 yuan in late June, the maximum price difference reached 2352.5 yuan.

the

first fluctuated from the beginning of the year to early March, with an overall decline of 32.44%. The average price of acetic acid market began to decline from a high of 6190 yuan, all the way to a low of 4182 yuan on March 8. During this period, the overall operating rate of the acetic acid industry remained high, but the downstream due to the Spring Festival holiday and other effects of poor start-up, in the context of the mismatch between supply and demand, the market continued to decline.

the second fluctuation in the of

from early March to the end of April showed that it rose first and then fell, with an overall slight increase of 1.87%. The average price of acetic acid market first rebounded from the low point to the current high of 5270 yuan on April 6, an increase of 26.01%. After hovering for two days, he suddenly turned down until it fell to the lowest point of 4260 yuan at this stage on April 27. In the early stage of this stage, acetic acid maintenance enterprises increased, supply continued to decline, coupled with export pull, acetic acid market into the upward channel. However, in early April, with the intensification of the domestic epidemic, some regional logistics were affected, the demand side continued to be sluggish, and the contradiction of oversupply in the market was prominent, resulting in this round of attack without success.

the

third fluctuation from the end of April to the end of June, is also the first up and then down trend, the overall decline of 2.58%. The average price of acetic acid market climbed from the previous low to the stage high of 5640 yuan on June 6, up 32.39%. After that, the price retreated sharply again until it fell to the lowest point of 3837.5 yuan in the first half of the year on June 22, and then rebounded slightly and finally ended at 4150 yuan. Entering the epidemic situation in May was basically effectively controlled, the market gradually recovered, while a number of sets of foreign devices accidentally stopped, acetic acid market continued to rise, in the middle and late of May gradually stabilized, downstream also maintain the accompanying just need to purchase. In mid-to-early June, with the industry's overall high inventory operation and the industry's expectation of a gradual increase in supply, some companies took the lead in cutting prices sharply in the case of high product inventories, which led to an overall sharp drop in the average price of acetic acid market.

Phenolic ketone market oversold rebound

2022年中国苯酚丙酮主流市场走势对比.jpg


Recently, the production cost of China's domestic phenolic ketone factories is under obvious pressure. The problem of reducing production and ensuring price can undoubtedly become the most direct and effective measure. After the news of the continuous decline of the phenolic ketone factory and the announcement of the start-up load or shutdown, the phenolic ketone market economy bottomed out and rebounded, but the continuity still needs to be further followed up.

due to the continuous development of "high temperature" and "rainstorm" weather in the

, the demand of end users can be restored to slow down. In the early stage, phenolic ketone devices have been put into operation one after another. The pressure on the supply-demand relationship has been continuously enlarged. Traders' mentality is not good, and their intention to make profits and shipments is maintained. With the time, the transaction price has fallen below the integer mark of 10,000 yuan. Some of them have recovered through middlemen and downstream bargain hunters. The market information has shown a certain stabilizing trend. However, on July 5, Pakistan's oil fell to 100 US dollars per barrel at the close, making it more worried about the global economic recession. The market is once again in a bear market atmosphere, with the price of pure benzene, the market's decline is amplified or even reversed. Increase in profit and loss on phenolic units. Under the premise of "quantity and price balance", most of the domestic phenolic devices are concentrated on reducing the burden or outage, and the expectation of supply reduction and low price tightening is strong. After the retaliatory rebound, the market quickly returned to the level of 9300-9400 yuan/ton.

China's domestic acetone market price has reversed rapidly recently. Unbalanced supply and demand and weak external environment, market confidence was frustrated, and the acetone market fell and continued to bottom out. When the price drops to around 4500 yuan/ton, under the support of the load reduction of phenolic ketone factories and the excessive downstream mining of some enterprises, the enthusiasm of professionals in the industry to take the initiative to enter the market can be obviously improved. The center of gravity of the market economy begins to rebound rapidly. Holders' are reluctant to sell at low prices. Under the mentality of buying up downstream, the positive development of purchasing personnel entering the market is slightly improved, as of July 22, Jiangsu rural areas acetone as a market reference to negotiate intentions in the 4850-4950 yuan/ton range. With the release of bullish news in the Chinese market and the weakening of interest in buying jobs downstream, the market has been slightly deadlocked through negotiations.

although the prices of phenol and acetone in

have shown a certain upward trend under the background of production reduction and shutdown of phenol ketone factories recently, the profit of phenol ketone enterprise management theory analysis has improved compared with the previous development, but the severity of losses still exists. The demand of short-term end users of phenol is difficult to significantly increase. After the rapid rebound of prices this week, the psychological resistance of downstream factories to high prices is increasing, next week the phenol market economic range shock consolidation probability is greater. Acetone, following the game of market supply and demand and the change of market mentality. The domestic acetone is expected to operate in a market economy next week. Based on this, the phenol ketone factory gross profit short-term difficult to turn a profit, the later part of the phenol ketone plant has a shutdown plan, still need to pay close attention to the phenol ketone plant start-up changes.


Source: China Chemical Industry News, Zhuochuang Chemical
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