[Industry Focus]：Analysis of the current situation of dimethylformamide (DMF), what is the future development trend of DMF industry chain?

DMF (chemical name n, n-DMF) is an organic compound with the chemical formula C3H7NO and is a colorless transparent liquid. DMF is one of the products with high economic added value in the modern coal-based chemical industry industrial chain. It is not only a chemical raw material with a wide range of uses, but also an excellent solvent with a wide range of uses. In addition to halocarbons, it can be mixed with water and most organic solvents arbitrarily, and has good solubility for various organic compounds and inorganic compounds. DMF is widely used in polyurethane (PU slurry), electronics, artificial fiber, pharmacy, food additives and other industries.

Overview of DMF industry chain

source: Public Data arrangement

from the domestic DMF supply side, the change in supply is relatively large. According to statistics, in 2021, the domestic capacity of DMF was 870,000 tons, the output was 659,800 tons, and the capacity conversion rate was 75.84%. Compared with 2020, the capacity of DMF industry in 2021was reduced, the output was increased, and the capacity utilization rate was improved.

2017-2021 China's DMF capacity, output and capacity conversion rate

source: Public Data arrangement

from the demand side, the apparent consumption of DMF increased steadily in 2017-2019, and was affected by the new epidemic in 2020. Affected, the consumption of DMF dropped sharply, and the apparent consumption of the industry rebounded in 2021. According to statistics, the apparent consumption of China's DMF industry in 2021was 529,500 tons, up 6.13% year on year.

Apparent consumption and growth rate of DMF in China, 2017-2021

source: Public Data arrangement

judging from the downstream demand structure, slurry is the largest consumption area. According to statistics, in the downstream demand structure of DMF in China in 2021, PU slurry was the largest downstream application of DMF, accounting for 59%. The terminal demand was luggage, clothing, shoes and hats and other industries, and the terminal industry was relatively mature.

Proportion of application segments in China's DMF industry in 2021

source: Public Data arrangement

"N,N-DMF" customs code "29241910". Judging from the import and export situation, china's DMF industry has excess capacity and exports are far greater than imports, in 2021, the price of DMF rose sharply, and the export amount of our country soared. According to statistics, in 2021, the export quantity of DMF in China was 131,400 tons, and the export amount was 0.229 billion US dollars.

China's DMF export quantity and amount from 2015 to 2021

source: General Administration of Customs, China economic Industry Research Institute

judging from the distribution of exports, 95.06% of China's DFM exports are in Asia. According to statistics, the top five destinations of China's DFM exports in 2021 were South Korea (accounting for 30.72%), Japan (accounting for 22.09%), India (accounting for 11.07%), Taiwan (accounting for 11.07%), vietnam (accounting for 9.08%).

Distribution of China's DMF exports in 2021 (unit:%)

source: General Administration of Customs, China economic Industry Research Institute

judging from the competition pattern (by capacity), the industry concentration is relatively high, with CR3 reaching 65%. According to statistics, in 2021, Hualu Hengsheng was the leader of domestic DFM production capacity, with a capacity of 330,000 tons of DMF. It is currently the world's largest DMF manufacturing enterprise, with a domestic market share of more than 33%.

Market competition pattern of China's DMF industry in 2021 (by capacity)

source: Public Data arrangement

1. The price continues to rise, or will be adjusted

since 2021, the price of DMF has risen sharply. The average price of DMF in 2021was 13111 yuan/ton, up 111.09% compared with 202020. On February 5, 2022, the price of DMF was 17450 yuan/ton, which was at a historical high level. The price difference of DMF shows a fluctuating upward trend, and the increase is obvious. On February 5, 2022, the price difference of DMF was 12247 yuan/ton, far exceeding the historical average price difference level.

2. The supply side is limited in the short term, and the long-term DMF demand will continue to recover.

In 2020, due to the impact of the new Crown epidemic, DMF consumption dropped sharply, and Zhejiang's withdrawal of 180,000 tons of production capacity JS had a certain impact on the supply side. In 2021, the impact of the domestic epidemic weakened, the demand of manufacturing industries such as shoes, bags, clothing and furniture recovered, the demand for PU slurry increased, and the demand for DMF increased accordingly. The annual apparent consumption of DMF was 529,500 tons, year-on-year growth of 6.13%. With the gradual weakening of the impact of the new Crown epidemic, the global economy is recovering, and the demand for DMF will continue to recover. It is expected that the output of DMF will increase steadily in 2022 and 2023.