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[Industry Focus]：Polyester giants jointly limited production to boost the market, the contradiction between downstream supply and demand is obvious, and polyester prices are still declining.

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In late November, polyester plants were affected by finished product inventory pressure and production efficiency, and on November 25, four polyester plants planned to reduce production on the basis of their current actual output 20%, after which the reduction was raised to 25%.

Factory production cuts, market focus remains downward

From the sub-item point of view, as of December 2, 2021, domestic polyester filament start-up load 77.11%, month-on-month-6.19%; polyester staple fiber start-up load 67.02%, month-on-month-1.31%; polyester bottle chip start-up load remained 78.46% unchanged. Overall construction is also at a nearly five-year low.

the polyester start-up rate drop according to common sense, for the market supply is bound to reduce production, is bound to boost the market, but it is understood that after the polyester filament production limit is still unable to escape the promotion curse, production and sales show pulse, but with the promotion frequency accelerated, the promotion effect is greatly reduced.

At the same time, the polyester product market has recently begun to see a sharp price reduction in shipments, with low prices emerging and a downward market focus. Polyester still has a large discount promotion in the past two days, with a maximum promotion of 400 yuan/ton! At present, the price of polyester filament POY 150D is 7250 yuan/ton, the price of polyester filament FDY 150D is reduced to 7450 yuan/ton, and the price of polyester filament DTY 150D is reduced to 8880 yuan/ton. Some of the larger declines have reached 3000 yuan/ton.

bulk raw materials collapse, giant production restrictions difficult to boost

, because the polyester industry chain has been highly centralized, in previous years, as long as the polyester giant joint production limit, is bound to set off a burst of downstream market crazy procurement, why the giant joint production limit is still difficult to boost the market?

reason, on the one hand, the market is once again worried about the new super new coronavirus variant and affect the demand recovery, including oil prices of the entire industrial chain prices collapsed. In the face of the collapse of bulk raw materials, the giant limited production is negligible.

The terminal order is not good, and the company's willingness to start up is not strong.

supply and demand contradiction is still the biggest problem, from the annual production and sales situation, 2021 filament, staple fiber, slice production and sales rate is relatively flat, high production and sales times than 2020 significantly reduced, the market risk aversion increased, downstream wait-and-see mentality is strong, downstream demand weakness is difficult to change. At the same time, terminal weaving enterprises also performed poorly in receiving new orders. In the early stage, due to the sharp rise in fiber prices, foreign trade orders were more cautious. With the gradual passage of "Double Eleven", new orders for domestic trade also decreased significantly. Data show that the September-November weaving order index was at a low level in the same period of previous years, and terminal new orders were lower than in previous years. At the same time, due to high inventory, lack of power to stock goods in winter, many places have early holidays.

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, due to the terminal order poor product rapid depreciation, enterprises start the willingness is not strong, as of December 2, 2021, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom integrated start-up load in the 65.31% near, ring-2.98%, actually in the past nine years the same period of low. In the 9 years of loom start-up rate historical low background, 77.11% polyester start-up rate is obviously a fuss!

The contradiction between supply and demand is highlighted, and enterprises are forced to promote sales frequently.

, the contradiction between supply and demand has led to frequent sales promotion and shipment this year.

in terms of

domestic demand, as of October 2021, retail sales of goods increased by 4.9% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.5 percentage points faster than the previous month; however, but after adjusting for inflation, the actual growth rate of social retail sales showed a downward trend, and the growth rate was higher than last month. The slowdown was 0.6 percentage points. Among them, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats and knitwear goods was 17.4%, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of online "wearing" goods was 14.1%, which was a large decline compared with the growth rate in previous years, and both continued to decline from the high point in early 2021, and the overall domestic sales of textile consumer goods were poor.

external demand, although some overseas importers in the sea freight rise in anticipation of early orders, but into December, the mutant strain outbreak and high sea freight still on the market overseas demand caused a negative pressure. The current cash flow and corporate debt situation is not optimistic, the ability of enterprises to speculate on the decline, so the actual procurement demand will also lose explosive power.

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