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[Chemical Knowledge]：In 2022, MMA market showed a trend of rising first and then falling. It is expected that domestic demand and export in the later period will determine the market trend.

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MMA market showed a trend of first up and then down in the first half of 2022. The geopolitical situation caused a sharp rise in international crude oil prices, which in turn led to a continuous loss of the C4 process, so even if there are three new sets of production capacity, but the overall supply is still less than the same period last year to support the price rise. However, the reduction in end consumption in the first half of the year caused the market to turn down. In the second half of the year, multiple sets of MMA new capacity is planned to be put into production, and later domestic demand and export follow-up become the key to determine the market direction. Average price decline 2.4% narrowed by 29 percentage points
year-on-year

, taking the primary market price in East China as an example, the average price of M MA in January-June 2022 was 12290.57 yuan/ton, down 2.4% year-on-year, with a price amplitude of 21.9%, while the price amplitude in January-June 2021 was 50.9%, narrowing by 29 percentage points year-on-year. Judging from the price fluctuations in the primary market in East China in the past five years, the MMA price in 2022 is below the average for the past five years. The price range for January-March and May basically maintains a certain price difference with the average line, with the price difference at about 1750 yuan/ton. The price range for April and June is close to the average line, and the price difference shrinks. The logic behind this is that MMA prices rose in the first quarter mainly due to strong support for raw material costs, while the price decline in the second quarter was the peak demand season in May due to the weakening of regional logistics capacity.

from the supply side in the second half of 2022, Zhuochuang Information Data Statistics 3. a total of 560,000 tons/year of new production capacity planned to be put into operation in the fourth quarter, if the completion of successful production capacity at the end of the year-on-year growth of more than 56%. Considering that the pressure of high costs in the second half of the year may be alleviated to a certain extent, the willingness of enterprises to produce may affect the actual supply changes.

from the demand side, domestic demand is mainly the ACR industry has new capacity, terminal demand is still concerned about the recovery of the golden nine silver ten consumption season. Exports are still considering that faster tightening of overseas currencies will affect exports in the domestic chemical market.

from the cost point of view, the second half of the year by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike policy and the risk of economic recession in Europe and the United States, the international oil price center of gravity or some downward movement, the petrochemical industry chain cost pressure is expected to be eased, there is marginal repair space for profits, global consumer confidence is also to be restored, the second half of 2022 MMA market amplitude is expected to continue to narrow.

Source: Zhuo Chuang Chemical

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