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Carbon neutralization is a relatively definite development trend of China's chemical industry in the future. Under the development trend of carbon peak and carbon neutral "double carbon", China's chemical industry will usher in a huge change. The general direction of transformation will be the transformation and upgrading of chemical industry, carbon reduction and the transformation of double carbon energy revolution.
Under such a general trend, what changes will China's chemical industry develop?
Under the trend of carbon neutrality, China's energy structure, industrial structure and consumption structure will undergo major regional structural changes.
First of all, in order to achieve carbon neutrality, China will always adhere to the development ideas of clean energy and green energy in the next 30 years. Among them, solar energy will be the main energy structure of the energy industry, followed by clean energy such as wind energy and tidal energy. In addition, hydrogen energy and other energy structures will become auxiliary, while the proportion of fossil energy consumption will gradually decrease until the balance with clean energy is balanced to achieve the trend of carbon neutralization. Secondly, under the double carbon trend, the proportion of energy manufacturing attributes is gradually increasing., cleaning equipment, environmental protection and recycling industries will be favored by the market for a long time, and the proportion of industrial impact will increase rapidly. However, the manufacture of new energy vehicles is expected to continue to replace traditional fuel locomotives and drive the realization of carbon neutrality from the energy consumption market. Carbon trading and carbon trade in chemical industry under the trend of "double carbon" will bring a new trading system.
The work plan for controlling greenhouse gas emissions issued by the State Council in 2016 clearly establishes and operates the national carbon emission trading market. There are three main measures:1. Establish a national carbon emission trading system;2. Start and operate the national carbon emission trading market;3. Strengthen the basic support capacity of national carbon emission trading. At present, China's carbon trading market is mainly a quota system, and chemical enterprises sell and purchase carbon emission quotas according to their own equipment conditions. However, at present, carbon trading is only a pilot project in some provinces. The total amount of each pilot project is loose, and the quota of the control units is excessive, resulting in lower carbon trading prices. Therefore, there is still a big gap between China's carbon trading market and developed countries in Europe and America. Large-scale and long-term energy storage is expected to drive the upgrading of new chemical materials industry.
According to the overall trend of carbon neutralization, the development of China's new energy industry is essentially the development of clean and renewable energy, among which photovoltaic energy and wind energy have the greatest development fit. The essence of photovoltaic energy and wind energy lies in electric energy transmission, the industrial chain integration mode of energy storage and new energy vehicles, therefore, energy storage is expected to be an important development direction in the future.. Energy storage mainly refers to the storage of electric energy, mainly including battery energy storage, inductor energy storage, capacitor energy storage and other methods, among which battery energy storage is an important application direction at present. Battery energy storage, such as lead-acid battery energy storage, Ni-MH battery energy storage, lithium ion battery energy storage, etc., behind these batteries is an important embodiment of the application of new chemical materials in China. Energy saving transformation of chemical plant will be a long-term trend
under the trend of carbon neutralization, the energy-saving transformation of China's chemical plant production is expected to help Chinese chemical enterprises reduce carbon emissions and realize carbon neutralization in the chemical industry. The energy-saving transformation of chemical plants in China mainly reflects the following directions: i, systematic transformation of key Chemical Industries for example, the petrochemical industry implements optimization of refining energy system, light-weight of olefin raw materials, advanced coal gasification, upgrading and upgrading of nitric acid production technology, etc. II, technical upgrade of waste heat high pressure recovery in chemical plant, self-provided power plant implements technical transformation such as waste heat recovery and utilization of flue gas system, high-parameter integrated cycle power generation of supercritical mixed working quality, etc.
III, implement carbon capture, carbon utilization and carbon storage technologies in chemical plants to strengthen the application of carbon dioxide in the fields of oil exploitation and plastic products processing in the chemical industry. Ultra-high voltage transmission will drive the upgrading of new chemical materials
the overall development trend of China's new energy will be the development mode of industrial chain integration., among which ultra-high voltage transmission is a key link in China's new energy development. By 2035, China's ultra-high voltage lines will achieve "national coverage", and China's ultra-high voltage lines will spread all over China like capillaries, at that time, China will be a China with new energy as the main clean energy consumption. A new round of supply-side structural reform in energy-consuming industries
under the background of carbon neutralization, the relevant chemical industry with high energy consumption will face a deep structural reform on the supply side. After the production capacity reaches its peak in the short term, it is expected to bring about the integration of production capacity after the influence of carbon neutralization trend. Based on relevant experience, chemical industry with supply-side structural reform under the trend of carbon neutralization may have coal system ethylene glycol, coal-based methanol, synthetic ammonia, industrial silicon, calcium carbide, caustic soda, yellow phosphorus, MTO, soda ash. Most of these industries are industries with high energy consumption and power-hungry. With the implementation of carbon neutralization policies in different provinces and cities, it is expected to bring decades of development drive to the chemical industry with relative development advantages. Low-carbon new materials and degradable materials will benefit for a long time.
For the industry development drive of new chemical materials in the future, there are two driving logic, one is consumption demand growth driven by double carbon policy, the other is policy-driven growth of low-carbon and degradable materials. Among them, low-carbon and degradable materials will be driven by policies to show explosive growth. This trend can be seen from the rapid growth of PLA and PBAT industries to be built in the future. Coal chemical industry will start the process of high efficiency and low carbonization
as we all know, coal chemical industry is a key industry under the trend of carbon neutralization, because coal chemical industry is an important carbon emission field in the chemical industry, and it is also a key transformation and upgrading industry in the future. The coal chemical industry in the future will be an efficient coal conversion and low-carbon production and operation industry, among which the conversion of coal to gas is expected to be an important development direction. Under the trend of carbon neutralization, the transformation of coal chemical industry will be the key transformation direction in the chemical industry and the industry with more in-depth reform. Decarburization in power industry provides more abundant raw materials for coal chemical industry
china's power industry is the first carbon emission in various industries, so decarburization of the power industry is an important reform direction to reduce carbon emission. Regarding the decarburization of the power industry, the important directions are photovoltaic power generation, wind power generation and other low-carbon power generation modes. While the power industry continues to reduce its dependence on coal, the supply and application of coal in other industries are expected to increase significantly, thus forming a decline in the value of coal in the long run. Pingtouge believes that this will be conducive to the production of coal chemical industry with coal as raw material, reduce the production cost of coal chemical industry, and drive the competitiveness of coal chemical production to improve. Decarburization of shipping trade is imminent, which is good for LNG
in 2020, the global shipping trade volume reached 11.47 billion tons, of which the coal trade volume exceeded 0.8 billion tons, the crude oil trade volume exceeded 2 billion tons, the refined oil trade volume exceeded 1 billion tons, the LNG trade volume exceeded 0.3 billion tons, and the total energy trade volume exceeded 4 billion tons. According to the changing trend of maritime trade volume, excluding the declining factors of the overall trade volume caused by the epidemic in 2020, the trade volume of coal, crude oil and refined oil showed a gradual declining trend in the global maritime market, this has a direct impact on the transformation of energy structure brought by global carbon neutralization. However, LNG trade volume is gradually increasing, due to the low-carbon energy attribute of LNG, global consumption of LNG will gradually increase, thus driving the growth of global trade volume.. According to the editor, this trend will continue to exist in the structure of global maritime energy trade in the coming decades.
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