[Industry Reports]：How much money can you make to produce a ton of polycarbonate PC?

the chemical industry's profitability level, follow the industry cycle changes and fluctuations, in a particular year and special environment, there will be some products of high profitability, such as 2021 caustic soda plant profiteering, is the past few decades have never seen.

2022 due to the high oil price downward trend, resulting in poor profitability of most chemical products, most products show an average annual loss of state. And some chemical products, because of its existence of the threshold characteristics, resulting in a good overall profit, and even the existence of the upward state, including polycarbonate PC.

polycarbonate, referred to as PC, is a polymer containing carbonate groups in the molecular chain. According to the structure of the ester groups, it can be divided into aliphatic, aromatic, aliphatic-aromatic and other types. Among them, aliphatic and aliphatic-aromatic polycarbonates have low mechanical properties, which limits their application in engineering plastics, and only aromatic polycarbonates have been industrially produced. Due to the special structure of polycarbonate, has become the five engineering plastics in the fastest growing general engineering plastics.

PC has good mechanical properties, with high strength and elastic coefficient, high impact strength, good fatigue resistance, good dimensional stability, creep is also small (little change under high temperature conditions), high transparency and free dyeing, is widely used in glass assembly industry, automobile industry and electronics, electrical industry, followed by industrial machinery parts, CD, packaging, computers and other office equipment, medical and health care, film, leisure and protective equipment. PC can be used as door and window glass, PC laminate is widely used in banks, embassies, detention centers and public places of protective windows, used in aircraft cabin covers, lighting equipment, industrial safety barriers and bulletproof glass.

technology, China's PC industry localization in recent years there has been rapid development.

By the end of 2022, China's polycarbonate industry has exceeded 2.5 million tons/year, with an output of about 1.4 million tons. At present, China's large-scale enterprises include Covestro (600000 tons/year), Zhejiang Petrochemical (520000 tons/year), Luxi Chemical (300000 tons/year), Zhongsha Tianjin (260000 tons/year).

three production processes: non-phosgene method, ester exchange method and interface condensation phosgene method, the production process of raw materials and costs there are obvious differences, three different processes bring PC different profit levels.

According to the profitability of China's PC in the past five years, in the past five years, China's PC in 2018 has the highest profitability, reaching 6500 yuan/ton or so. Subsequently, the level of profitability decreased year by year, and during the period 2020 and 2021, due to the epidemic leading to lower consumption levels, there was a significant contraction in profitability, and the interfacial condensation phosgene and non-phosgene methods showed significant losses.

, as of the end of 2022, China's PC production in the ester exchange method profit level is the highest, reaching 2092 yuan/ton, followed by the interface condensation phosgene method, the profit level of 1592 yuan/ton, while the non-phosgene method only 292 yuan/ton of theoretical production profit.

, in the past 5 years, the ester exchange method has always been the most profitable production method in China's PC production process, while the non-phosgene method is the weakest.

Judging from the fluctuation of PC profit in China in the past five years, there are the following factors that affect the profit level of PC: First, the fluctuation of the prices of raw materials bisphenol A and DMC has a direct impact on the cost of PC, especially the price fluctuation of bisphenol A, which has an impact weight of more than 50% on the cost of PC. Second, the fluctuation of the terminal consumer market, especially the reduction of consumption capacity caused by the fluctuation of macro-economy, has a direct impact on the PC consumer market. For example, during 2020 and 2021 affected by the epidemic, the consumption scale of PC in the consumer market has decreased, resulting in a significant decline in PC prices, which has a direct impact on the profitability of the PC market.

The past few years under different processes PC profit trend (unit: yuan/ton)

counted the monthly average situation in November 2022. According to the data, China's PC production profit margin is between 2275 yuan/ton and 3955 yuan /ton, of which transesterification PC production profit is the highest, reaching 3955 yuan/ton. The second is the interfacial condensation phosgene method, with a profit margin of 3455 yuan/ton. Non-phosgene method is still the lowest profit margin, at 2275 yuan/ton.

For the whole of 2022, different types of PC production processes in China are profitable, and the profitability is showing a gradual growth trend. This is because the price of bisphenol A continues to be low and PC production costs are low. In addition, the downstream has also been a certain degree of recovery.

the impact of the 2022 epidemic is more severe, crude oil prices continue to fall, the consumer market is not good, most of China's chemicals have not reached the normal profit margin. PC prices remain strong and profitability is gradually improving, making it a rare high-boom product in China's chemical industry. The future bisphenol A market continues to be depressed, coupled with the Spring Festival approaching, if the outbreak control and orderly liberalization, consumer demand may appear a wave of growth, PC profit space may still continue to grow.