[Industry Reports]：Methanol prices fall sharply, weak after market

in October, the domestic methanol price fell sharply, the center of gravity rose. At the end of the long holiday, affected by the arrival of the market caused by poor logistics in many places and the need to fill warehouses downstream, the mainland methanol market experienced a short-term rapid rise, and the growth was more obvious, which also became the main support for the monthly average price increase. Subsequently, the downstream resistance to high prices, some production enterprises inventory pressure increased, began to reduce the price of shipments, many parts of the mainland began to gradually decline in transaction prices. The futures decline during this period was also focused on bearish sentiment in the market. At the end of the month, the decline in cost support in some areas slowed into a shock trend, but the problem of poor inter-regional supply circulation still exists.

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in October, the northwest Ordos north line average price of 2482 yuan/ton, up 1.35 percent, down 29.41 percent; Southwest Sichuan average price of 2914 yuan/ton, up 6.43 percent, down 25.13 percent; Central China Henan average price of 2737 yuan/ton, up 3.60 percent, down 30.81 percent;

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domestic mainstream regional price list and regional market profile
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the northwest region: at present, the northwest methanol market is temporarily stable. Among them, the mainstream transaction price of the northern line of Inner Mongolia stabilized to 2300-2350 yuan/ton; the mainstream transaction price of the southern line stabilized to 2380-2400 yuan/ton; the mainstream transaction price of northern Shaanxi stabilized to 2390-2400 yuan/ton; the mainstream market in Guanzhong region The transaction price is stable to 2500-2530 yuan/ton. In recent weekends, the market atmosphere is light, and the bidding price in Lubei has increased, but the enthusiasm for receiving goods is not high, and more purchases are made on demand. Enterprises in the region mainly execute contracts, and the northwest market is expected to be concentrated or weak in the near future.

North China: At present, the methanol market in North China is rising and falling. Shandong Jining methanol market negotiation price fell to 2640-2660 yuan/ton; Shanxi Linfen mainstream transaction price fell to 2550-2560 yuan/ton. The epidemic affected the speed of logistics, upstream enterprises shipping prices fell narrowly, but freight rates rose, downstream receiving prices rose narrowly; Hebei Shijiazhuang surrounding methanol plant mainstream transaction prices stabilized to 2670 yuan/ton; Lubei mainstream prices rose to 2800-2810 yuan/ton. The North China market is expected to be volatile.

Central China: Today, the methanol market in Central China consolidated in a narrow range. Today, Henan Energy will not auction methanol for the time being, and order delivery will be implemented. Price reference 2650-2655 yuan/ton factory cash withdrawal remittance, other enterprises offer a narrow range down. Luoyang market negotiation reference 2670 yuan/ton cash remittance. Hubei enterprises offer stable prices, factory reference 2815-2850 yuan/ton factory cash withdrawal remittance; Hunan market negotiation reference 2900-2980 yuan/ton cash remittance. It is expected that the short-term market may be stable operation.

East China: At present, the East China methanol market is narrow fluctuations, 11 base performance is strong. Holders stick to their mindset, and spot traders do not want to sell at low prices. East China methanol market is expected in the short term may rebound.

South China: At present, the price fluctuation of methanol market in South China is small. Guangdong's price center of gravity has stabilized, early trading center of gravity is low, most of the downstream need to enter the market. In the afternoon, with a slight correction in the disk, spot prices rose slightly and trading did not improve. Fujian transactions have declined, and increased supply has suppressed market mentality. South China methanol market prices are expected in the short term will continue to narrow fluctuations.

Southwest: Southwest methanol market is stable at present. The price of Sichuan and Chongqing upstream gas enterprises stabilized to 2620-2750 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of Chengdu traders stabilized to 2800-2850 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of Chongqing traders stabilized to 2800 yuan/ton. The mainstream price in Yungui region stabilized to 2680-2830 yuan/ton. The maintenance time of Sichuan Daxing methanol plant has been postponed to around October 30. Downstream and traders mainly wait and see. The enthusiasm for receiving goods on weekends is general, and upstream mainly implements the contract balance. Southwest methanol market is expected to short-term weakness.

Crude Oil Costs: International crude oil market prices may have upside in November, with OPEC + production cut strategy providing bottom support. At the same time, the European Union plans to completely ban Russian offshore crude oil in early December. November could accelerate new Western sanctions against Russia. At the same time, the geopolitical risks of instability in Russia and Ukraine remain. WTI may operate in the $85-94 per barrel range, and Brent may operate in the $93-102 per barrel range. Coal: Inner Mongolia epidemic prevention and control is becoming more and more strict, most of the coal mines in Shaanxi to maintain normal production. However, as the temperature drops, some areas in the north have started heating, and the load of the units in the relevant areas has increased. As the late heating season approaches, downstream replenishment demand remains and coal prices may be supported. Natural gas: In November, the north entered the heating season, and the demand for LNG peak shaving increased. Hubei Huanggang Kunlun Energy, Shandong Tai'an Kunlun energy device plans to resume work, LNG production is expected to increase. Public health events are gradually under control. LNG supply and demand are expected to increase throughout November, with price fluctuations rising, with an average price of LNG7000 yuan per ton.
supply: at present, the 300000-ton/year equipment in Xinxiang is only repaired in November, but there are many maintenance equipment from October 30 to 31, such as Sichuan Daxing 200000 tons/year, Jingmen Yingde 500000 tons/year, Qinghai Zhonghao 600000 tons/year, Inner Mongolia Yuanxing 1 million tons/year, Inner Mongolia Sulige 330000 tons/year, etc.

demand forecast: In November, the downstream mainstream industry of methanol is expected to resume production. Acetic acid: production may be reduced next month. Henan Longyu, Shandong Hualu, Shandong Yanzhou Mining is still in a state of parking. Driving time to be determined. Henan Shunda has expectations of burden reduction and parking. Formaldehyde: Deju Yicheng Plant will be shut down for maintenance. Shandong Chengguang, Weifang Xudong and Shandong Lianyi will all be reduced. It is expected that the output will decrease next month. Dimethyl ether: Shanxi Danfeng, Linyi Yuanbo and Hebi BMW units have been stored and restarted, and Quanzhou Quansheng unit is planned to be put into production. Dimethyl ether may start in November; Chloride: Dongying Huatai plant is expected to resume, 160000 tons/year to full load (early half load). Storage and restart plans for Jiangsu Liwen devices are expected to increase. MTO: This month, Zhongyuan Petrochemical and Shenhua Xinjiang inventory restart. Qinghai salt lake is expected to stop maintenance, November the whole start or no obvious change. Therefore, it is expected that the consumption of methanol will increase in November, and the average order of enterprises will be 25-270000 tons.

in November, coal prices or highs fell. From a fundamental point of view, the production speed of new equipment is not fast or the load is not high. Due to natural gas restrictions and cost problems, domestic supply may reduce the burden; import supply is still difficult to recover quickly. However, against the backdrop of a fragmented outbreak, the methanol market is expected to be weak in November and the coastal base differential will be strong due to tight circulation supplies. It is expected that the market price of Taicang in the mainstream area will be 2700-2900 yuan/ton.