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[Industry Reports]：The proportion of isobutyl alcohol imported goods increased, and the industry changed significantly.

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isobutanol is one of the by-products of butyl octanol plant, the development of isobutanol industry is facing severe tests in recent years. The increasing influence of related products on isobutanol has led to changes in the supply structure of isobutanol and an increase in the proportion of imported goods. Since 2021, the proportion of isobutanol imports has been increasing, and has become one of the main factors affecting the social impact of market price fluctuations.

isobutanol as one of the by-products of butyl octanol plant, the development of isobutanol industry is facing severe tests in recent years. On the one hand, it can come from the rapid economic development of related company products to form a squeeze on the management of isobutanol resources, here refers specifically to isobutyraldehyde. As one of the main raw materials of new powder coatings, isobutanol has developed rapidly in recent years, which has brought great impact and challenge to the supplier of isobutanol. There are obvious substitute products in the main consumption areas. Affected by this factor, the consumption of isobutanol shows a trend of shrinking year by year. At the same time, due to its small scale, the problem of declining market participation is gradually emerging. Judging from the changing apparent consumption of isobutanol in the past five years, the overall development showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing, and once there was an economic contraction.

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under the influence of its own product characteristics, the price trend of isobutanol is restricted and affected by more external factors.

the influence of n-butanol and isobutyraldehyde on the supply and demand of isobutanol is also obvious in
related enterprise products. The former n-butanol has a strong guiding research significance for the daily pricing of isobutanol, while the latter has further developed and compressed the market economic share of isobutanol by squeezing students who effectively increase production capacity of isobutanol. According to statistics from Zhuochuang Information, the output of isobutanol has dropped sharply in the past five years, and more production capacity has been converted to isobutyraldehyde. In the early stage, it has changed from "small aldehyde big alcohol" to "small aldehyde big alcohol". Since 2020, isobutyraldehyde on isobutanol production capacity of the squeeze students show the trend of gradual development and acceleration, including Luxi Chemical, Yankuang and Tianjin Bohua Yongli and other devices have been converted from isobutanol to isobutyraldehyde, domestic isobutanol and production continue to decline.

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Imported goods on isobutanol impact enterprises enhanced, once a port high inventory of the main data source.

Although the total consumption of isobutanol in
continues to grow weakly, with the decline in output, the import of isobutanol shows a trend of increasing instead of decreasing, which is also one of the main differences between chemicals in other countries. According to Zhuochuang Information Statistics, the import volume of isobutanol increased to 80,300 tons in 2021, and the increase in import dependence led to an increase in the impact of imported products on the isobutanol market.

after the
entered 2022, the influence of imported goods on the price of isobutanol continued to increase, and once developed into one of the main social factors affecting the high inventory in the first half of the year. Under the background of weak demand, the early high import volume has become the main incentive for the rise of port inventory, and the long-term high inventory has obvious characteristics of inhibiting the price of isobutanol. In the second half of the year, with China's Tianjin Bohua Yongli isobutanol production reduction, in addition to isobutanol imports continue to develop and decline, isobutanol high supply situation has been gradually analyzed and effectively reversed. Although the overall performance of the demand side is weak, the continued decline in port inventories has also become one of the key factors for isobutanol to gradually return to normal fundamentals.

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entering the third quarter, isobutanol fundamentals are also signaling some positive changes. Although the weak demand logic continues, there is a gradual contraction in the supply side, including domestic production and imports. The decline in social inventories also marks a gradual improvement in isobutanol fundamentals, and its price fluctuations may return to normal in the future.

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