Current Location： Home > News > Industry Focus > MIBK market downturn, the intertwined impact of raw materials, demand and supply

[Industry Focus]：MIBK market downturn, the intertwined impact of raw materials, demand and supply

Read： 390 Time：1months ago Source：Baichuan Yingfu, Change the World

1. market activity and weak demand

MIBK (methyl isobutyl ketone) market activity has declined significantly recently, and the trading center of gravity has been shifting downward. Contract order execution in the market has become dominant, while new inquiries and purchase intentions are particularly rare. The purchasing mood of downstream enterprises is low, and the demand for MIBK continues to be weak. The strategy of "buy-to-use" is adopted to avoid inventory backlog. This procurement model limits the sales capacity of MIBK enterprises, resulting in most enterprises can only rely on old customers to maintain basic operations, new orders are very few. Therefore, MIBK Market Price there is an obvious downward trend. The quotation in the East China market is between 10,000-10,100 yuan/ton, while the South China market is hovering between 10,300-10,500 yuan/ton.

2023-2024年MIBK市场价格走势图.jpg

2. capacity and plant operating conditions

at present, the effective production capacity of the national MIBK industry is 210000 tons, of which the operating capacity is 159500 tons, and the operating rate remains at a high level of about 75.96. From the perspective of device operation, the production devices of most MIBK enterprises run smoothly and the production capacity is effectively released. However, it is worth noting that the installation of a company in Hunan has been suspended for some reason, and there is no restart plan for the time being, which has affected the supply pattern of the MIBK market to a certain extent. Nevertheless, the overall market supply remained stable and did not fluctuate significantly.

3. Cost and Profit Space Analysis

the weak performance of the market price of raw material acetone has put greater pressure on the cost side of MIBK production. At the same time, the imbalance in the supply and demand pattern of the MIBK market has led to continued low market prices. Under this double pressure, the profit margin of MIBK enterprises has been greatly compressed, and the profit margin is extremely limited. At present, MIBK's profit level is only 111 yuan/ton, which shows the severe challenge of the current market environment to MIBK enterprises.

Future 4. market trends and forecasts

looking ahead, the weak performance of the raw material acetone market price is expected to continue for some time, which will further weaken the cost support of MIBK. At the same time, the downstream market demand is still in the off-season, the willingness to buy is insufficient, and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. Coupled with the commissioning plan of the new device, the supply of MIBK market is expected to increase, and the contradiction between supply and demand will be further intensified. Therefore, it is expected that the MIBK market price will continue to show a downward trend in the coming period. Especially in late December, with the commissioning of new devices and the continued weakness of downstream demand, the downward pressure on MIBK market prices will further increase. The mainstream price in the East China market is expected to fall between 9,000-10,000 yuan/ton.

The MIBK market has faced multiple challenges recently, with declining market activity, weak demand and increased pressure on costs and profitability. In the future, the market will continue to maintain a downward trend.

Source: Baichuan Yingfu, Hua Yi Tianxia

* Disclaimer: the content contained in the Internet, WeChat public number and other public channels, we maintain a neutral attitude to the views in the article. This article is for reference only, exchange. The copyright of the reprinted manuscript belongs to the original author and organization. If there is infringement, please contact the customer service of Huayi World to delete it.

Previous： Beihai Jiantao started 200000 tons of special epoxy resin and is expected to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2025.

Next： Total investment 33 billion, 800000 tons of new materials project input trial production, including 600000 tons/year BDO

News Categories