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[Industry Focus]：Analysis of MMA domestic market development in 2024 and outlook for the future.

Read： 201 Time：1months ago Source：Olefin Industry Innovation and Development Institute, Ease of the World

1. production capacity continues to expand, growth slows down

in 2024, China's methyl methacrylate (MMA) production capacity will continue to grow significantly and is expected to reach 2.71 million tons by the end of the year. This growth trend is particularly evident between 2020 and 2024, with the rapid development of the acrylonitrile-ABS industry chain in 2022 driving a significant increase in acrylonitrile capacity and ACH process MMA capacity. However, entering 2024, the growth rate of MMA capacity has slowed down due to overcapacity in the acrylonitrile market and poor profitability. Nevertheless, as of October 2024, MMA production has reached 1.229 million tons, close to the full-year 2023 level, indicating strong production capacity.

MMA产能、产能增速、产量.jpg

Capacity of Major Domestic MMA Enterprises

国内MMA主要企业产能.jpg

the 2. production process is mainly based on the ACH method, and the ethylene method has made a breakthrough.

In the production process of MMA, the acetone cyanohydrin method (ACH method) dominates, accounting for about 74% of the production capacity in 2024. The raw material of the process, hydrocyanic acid, is mainly from the by-product of the acrylonitrile plant, and the start-up of acrylonitrile has a great influence on the start-up of the MMA plant of the ACH process. At the same time, the ethylene method (C2 method) has made a key breakthrough in 2024. The completion and commissioning of the 50000-ton ethylene method MMA project in Panjin Sanli marks the formal application of ethylene method in domestic MMA production and brings new growth points to the industry.

2020-2024EMMA各工艺产能对比.jpg

Diversification of 3. supply patterns and increased regional competition

in 2024, the regional pattern of China's MMA production capacity is constantly changing, showing diversified characteristics. The new production capacity is mainly distributed in the northeast, Shandong and southwest regions, especially the new production capacity of 150000 tons in the southwest region, which increases the proportion of the regional production capacity to 14%, showing a strong growth momentum. However, this has also led to a further increase in supply in East China, North China and other regions, and competition has become increasingly fierce.

2020-2024EMMA按地区产能对比.jpg

4. operating rates are sluggish and capacity utilization rates are down

affected by the rapid increase in supply and the relatively slow increase in demand, the pressure on the start of domestic MMA equipment in 2024 is limited, and the overall capacity utilization rate of the industry shows a downward trend. With the exception of October, the capacity utilization rate for the remaining months was below 60%. In addition, the ACH process is mostly equipped with acrylonitrile, and the sluggish start of acrylonitrile also has a great impact on the start of MMA.

近年来我国MMA行业产能利用率变化.jpg
2024年1-10月MMA月度产能利用率.jpg

5. international capacity overhaul, exports continue to grow

with the rapid growth of domestic supply, MMA imports continued to shrink, while exports continued to grow. After 2021, China has become a net exporter of MMA. From January to October 2024, the export volume has increased to 270100 tons, up 127.36 per cent year-on-year. Among them, the international part of the MMA device maintenance is one of the important reasons for the increase in exports.

2020-2024年MMA进出口走势.jpg

6. apparent consumption changes little and prices rise

although the apparent consumption of MMA in 2024 decreased slightly year-on-year, overall, it was not much different from 2023. However, by the increase in exports and the impact of domestic construction is not high, MMA prices have risen.

2023-2024年MMA表观消费量对比及价格走势.jpg

7. future outlook: overcapacity, increased competition, new process to be a breakthrough

looking forward to 2025, it is estimated that 450000 tons of new production capacity will be put into operation, mainly based on the ACH method, and relying on the production capacity of the supporting acrylonitrile industry. This will enable MMA production capacity to exceed 3.16 million tons, further intensifying market competition. At the same time, many chemical giants around the world are also adjusting the capacity of MMA plants, and exports are likely to grow further. However, in the international situation is not clear, the follow-up market still needs to wait and see. In the long run, the progress of C1 and C2 low-cost new processes and capacity breakthroughs are expected to have a major impact on the MMA market. Xinjiang Zhongyou Puhui Technology Co., Ltd. coal-based methanol-acetic acid 700000 tons production capacity expectations, Panjin Sanli, Zhongke Puyuan, Chengzhi shares, Yan'an energy and other enterprises of the positive layout, all indicate that the MMA market will usher in new changes.

Table: Expected production of MMA in 2025

表 2025年MMA预计投产情况.jpg

in summary, the domestic MMA market in 2024 presents complex and changeable characteristics in terms of capacity growth, production process breakthroughs, changes in supply patterns, sluggish operating rates, export growth and stable apparent consumption. In the future, with the production of new production capacity and the intensification of market competition, the MMA industry will face greater challenges and opportunities.

Source: Olefin Industry Innovation and Development Institute, Ease of the World

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