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[Industry Focus]：Supply tight cost support, why the price of acrylonitrile rose against the trend?

Read： 366 Time：2months ago Source：Zhuochuang Chemical, Sheng Enterprise Chain

1. price trend review and expected divergence

october-November, acrylonitrile Market Price the trend diverged significantly from expectations at the beginning of the fourth quarter. Based on the fundamental prediction of increased supply and weaker downstream demand, the market expects acrylonitrile prices to be weak. However, the actual situation is that the price of acrylonitrile reached 8608 yuan/ton at the end of October, up 0.51 percent from September, and continued to rise steadily in November. Up to now, the secondary market price of East China port has been close to 9300 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.68. This week, the domestic acrylonitrile market price is showing a more significant upward trend.

2. supply side factor depth analysis

the main reason for the deviation from the expected price trend of acrylonitrile is the change of supply side. After October, a number of acrylonitrile plants, including Jilin Petrochemical, Shanghai SECCO and Anqing Petrochemical, were overhauled, resulting in a tight supply of acrylonitrile in East China. In particular, the shutdown and maintenance of a 130000-ton unit of Anqing Petrochemical Company has had a significant impact on the market supply. In November, the maintenance of Anqing Petrochemical continued, while the load of Zhejiang Petrochemical and Jiangsu Sirbang and other units also decreased, and the industry started a slight decline, further strengthening the supply support of acrylonitrile in East China. In addition, although the supply of acrylonitrile in Shandong is sufficient, its excess capacity is flowing to the East China market, driving the price of the region to rise rapidly.

3. raw material cost support

in addition to the tight supply side, the price trend of raw material propylene also has an important impact on the price of acrylonitrile. Due to the obvious cost pressure of propylene itself, some units have maintenance plans, resulting in propylene prices rising to a relatively high level in early October, maintaining a narrow range of volatility. This trend has increased the cost pressure of acrylonitrile plants, and the manufacturers have continued to support the price of acrylonitrile.

4. downstream demand is relatively stable

although the supply side and raw material costs have an important impact on the price of acrylonitrile, changes in downstream demand cannot be ignored. The demand for the main downstream areas of acrylonitrile was relatively stable from October to November, with a slight increase. On the one hand, the acrylic fiber industry improved in November after the decline in construction in October, and the rotation inspection of some devices was postponed. On the other hand, the overall profit loss of ABS industry has been reduced, the enthusiasm of manufacturers to start work has been enhanced, and the industry has slightly improved. These changes have formed a certain support for the price of acrylonitrile.

Regional Market Differences and Interaction in 5.

The supply shortage of acrylonitrile in East China is still serious and may last for a long time. As a result, major producers continue to maintain a high price strategy. Although there is an oversupply in Shandong, its excess production is being absorbed by the East China market, leading to a gradual increase in prices in the region. In addition, the atmosphere in the northern market is also significantly warmer, and prices are likely to rise and fall in the short term. This shows the interaction and influence between regional markets and further increases the complexity of the acrylonitrile market.

6. future price trend forecast

based on the above factors, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to maintain a strong trend in the future. The supply shortage in East China is difficult to ease quickly and will continue to support market prices. At the same time, the flow of excess capacity in Shandong to the East China market and the recovery of the northern market will also have a positive impact on prices.

Source: Zhuochuang Chemical, Sheng Enterprise Chain

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