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[Industry Focus]：The chemical industry "Golden Nine" peak season missed the appointment, the price decline is a foregone conclusion.

Read： 238 Time：4weeks ago Source：Paint Procurement Network

1. chemical industry peak season is not prosperous, product prices generally decline

recently, the chemical industry has encountered the embarrassing situation that the traditional peak season has not arrived as scheduled. In sharp contrast to the price increases of many products, the prices of chemical products have declined to varying degrees. Take titanium dioxide as an example, this year's rise is obviously not as good as in previous years, and the stocking in the third quarter is more rational, mostly based on rigid demand. The market even predicts that after the National Day, leading companies may be the first to cut prices, and other major producers will follow suit to compete for orders and market share.

2. a variety of chemicals into the decline channel, the decline is significant.

In early October, leading companies such as Sinopec and Lihua Yi announced a decline in product prices per ton, further confirming the price reduction in the peak season. According to incomplete statistics from the paint procurement network, as of the end of September, the prices of more than 60 kinds of chemicals have fallen from the end of August, a drop of nearly 20%. This includes solvents, basic raw materials and downstream chemicals, with prices falling by nearly 3000 yuan/tonne.

Some chemicals month-on-month price changes in September.

部分化工品9月环比价格变动.jpg

Some chemical prices hit recent lows in 3.

In September this year, some chemicals appeared in the low price range of a long period, and hit the low point in recent years. For example, the PTA in stock theory negotiation price volatility in 4730-4765 yuan/ton, near the low of nearly three years. At the same time, Henan methanol in stock offer also fell significantly.

4. leading companies have fallen, market confidence has been frustrated.

Many leading chemical companies have also experienced a decline in quotations. For example, the quotations of propylene, MTBE, tert-butyl alcohol and other products in Wanhua Chemical Shandong region all declined from the end of August. Hualu Hengsheng acetic acid, adipic acid, cyclohexanone and other products have also declined. The decline in the quotations of these leading companies has further exacerbated the pessimism of the market.

5. weak global economic recovery and weak demand side

why is the traditional peak season "not prosperous"? The main reason is that the global economic recovery is weak, especially the US recession fears intensified, leading to a setback in market confidence and weak demand. The purchasing managers' index of the manufacturing industry has been below the line of prosperity and decline, reflecting the continued contraction of domestic manufacturing activities and the suppression of demand for industrial products.

6. raw material price volatility weakens cost support

in addition, fluctuations in raw material prices, especially the downward trend in energy prices such as crude oil, have also weakened the cost support of industrial products. This makes it difficult for chemical prices to stand firm at high levels, further exacerbating the downward trend in the market.

7. price cuts may not promote orders, the industry chain is under tremendous pressure

does the manufacturer's price reduction promote the customer's cost reduction and pull some orders. Some paint chemical companies actually do not want to reduce the price of raw materials. Because once the upstream raw material price reduction, downstream enterprises will ask midstream manufacturers to reduce prices. This situation has appeared in home appliances, automobiles, new energy and other industries. This also means that companies in multiple links of the chemical industry chain are being held by external risks to reduce prices. The follow-up will be a huge impact, such as increased income pressure, reduced profit margins, inventory backlog, occupation of funds, product depreciation, capital chain tension and so on.

8. price war continues to increase, industrial chain enterprises seek survival

enterprises in multiple links of the chemical industry chain have been coerced by external risks to reduce prices, and the subsequent impact will be huge. For example, increased revenue pressure, reduced profit margins, as well as downstream cold weak inventory backlog, occupation of funds, product depreciation, tight capital chain, price war and other vicious competition will continue to increase.

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