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[Industry Focus]:Phenolic ketone industry chain set off a wave of price increases, what is the profit outlook?

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1. phenol ketone industry chain prices overall rise

last week, the cost transmission of the phenol ketone industry chain was smooth, and the prices of most items showed an upward trend. Among them, the increase in acetone was particularly significant, reaching 2.79 per cent. This is mainly due to the reduction in the supply of propylene market and the strong cost support, which led to the rise of market negotiations. Domestic acetone plant start load is limited, the product priority supply downstream, the market in stock circulation tight, further promote the price rise.


Tight Supply and Price Volatility in 2. MMA Market

unlike other items in the industrial chain, MMA's average price continued its downward trend last week, but the daily price trend showed a decline and then an increase. This is due to unplanned maintenance of some units, resulting in a decrease in the MMA start-up load rate and a tight supply of in stock in the market. Overlay cost support, market prices to achieve an increase. This phenomenon shows that although MMA prices are affected by tight supply in the short term, cost factors still support market prices.


Cost Conduction Analysis of 3. Pure Benzene-Phenol-Bisphenol A Chain

in the pure benzene-phenol-bisphenol A chain, the conduction effect of cost is still positive. Although pure benzene is facing the pessimistic expectation of Saudi Arabia's subsequent increase in production, but the main port of East China to go to the warehouse and the subsequent arrival of limited, resulting in tight market supply, driving up prices. Phenol and upstream pure benzene price upside-down space hit a new low this year, the cost-end boost is strong. Bisphenol A in stock circulation is not abundant, superimposed cost pressure, from the cost end and supply end of the price support. However, downstream prices did not rise as much as raw materials, indicating that costs are facing some resistance to downstream transmission.


Overall profitability of 4. phenol ketone industry chain

although the overall price of the phenolic ketone industry chain has risen, the overall profitability is still not optimistic. The theoretical loss of phenol ketone co-production was 925 yuan/ton, but the loss was reduced compared with last week. This is mainly due to the rise in the price of phenol and acetone, and compared with the raw materials of pure benzene and propylene, the overall increase is greater, and the profit margin is slightly expanded. However, the profitability of downstream products such as bisphenol A performed poorly, with a theoretical loss of 964 yuan/ton, an increase from last week. Therefore, it is necessary to pay attention to whether there is a production reduction and shutdown plan for the phenol ketone and bisphenol A plants in the later stage.

Comparison of profitability between isopropanol and MMA by 5. acetone hydrogenation

among the downstream products of acetone, the profitability of acetone hydrogenation isopropanol declined significantly, with the average theoretical gross profit last week at -260 yuan/tonne, down 50.00 percent month-on-month. This is mainly due to the relatively high price of raw material acetone and the relatively small increase in the price of downstream isopropanol. In contrast, although the price and profit margin of MMA have been reduced, it still maintains strong profitability. Last week, the average theoretical gross profit of the industry was 4603.11 yuan/ton, which is the highest profit level item in the phenol ketone industry chain.


6. focus and risk tips

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source: Zhuochuang Chemical

* Disclaimer: the content contained in the Internet, WeChat public number and other public channels, we maintain a neutral attitude to the views in the article. This article is for reference only, exchange. The copyright of the reprinted manuscript belongs to the original author and organization. If there is infringement, please contact the customer service of Huayi World to delete it.

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