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[Industry Focus]：May n-butanol market trend analysis: fundamentals and expectations of the game.

Read： 456 Time：6months ago Source：卓创化工

With the subtle changes in the chemical industry market, the recent trend of the butanol market has attracted attention. After a brief decline in late April, the price of n-butanol gradually rebounded in May. Although the increase was not large, it revealed new developments in the market. Especially in the game between fundamentals and market expectations, the market seems to be looking for a new balance.

1. market prices first fall and then rise, overall volatility is small

since late April, the n-butanol market has shown a trend of falling first and then rising, but the overall increase is not large. Taking the Shandong market as an example, by the end of May 13, the range of n-butanol price was 7950-8000 yuan/ton, which was 175 yuan/ton higher than the price at the end of April. This volatility indicates that the market is going through a series of adjustments and changes.

2023-2024年正丁醇市场走势图.jpg

2. industry fundamentals and market expectations of the game

in May, a game was launched between the fundamentals of the n-butanol industry and market expectations. The weak expected impact of the expected new device production plan still exists, but the industry's continued destocking trend has gradually shifted market attention to product fundamentals. Unexpected fluctuations on the supply side and stable performance on the demand side combined to drive up market prices.

3. seasonal trends and fundamental strength of the deviation

judging from the seasonal trend, May is usually the month when the price of n-butanol falls. However, in May this year, the price of n-butanol showed a reverse seasonal upward trend. This is mainly due to the strong performance of fundamentals and triggered the industry to continue to inventory. This divergence suggests that the market is being affected by more non-seasonal factors.

4. Tight Balance Expectations Continue, Weak Expectations Weakened

over time, the tight balance of the n-butanol market is expected to continue, while the impact of the originally expected weak expectations is gradually weakening. This was mainly due to the increase in unexpected fluctuations on the supply side and the stable performance of the demand side. In particular, the unexpected reduction in production of multiple sets of butanol plants and the high-level operation of the main downstream of butyl acetate and butyl acrylate have jointly supported the tight balance of the market.

5. May second half of the market trend forecast and risk analysis

in the second half of May, the n-butanol market still has the possibility of rising. This is mainly due to the impact of strong fundamentals and the expectation of large-scale device parking in the second half of the year. However, while the market trend is good, it is also accompanied by certain risks. On the one hand, the transmission of the industrial chain to the increase of butanol is not smooth, the main downstream of the butanol increase acceptance is not high, on the other hand, the increase in the supply of related products octanol may have a negative impact on the positive boost effect of butanol. Therefore, investors and companies need to pay close attention to these potential risk factors while paying attention to market trends.

source: Zhuochuang Chemical

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