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[Industry Focus]：Maleic anhydride market supply tight, price upward trend is obvious

Read： 798 Time：8months ago Source：百川盈孚

1. maleic anhydride market prices rise, supply side good support

recently, maleic Anhydride Market Price showing a significant upward trend. According to the latest market data, the reference price of solid anhydride in Shandong has reached 7100 yuan/ton, and the reference price of liquid anhydride is 6800 yuan/ton. In Jiangsu region, the price range of liquid anhydride is 7150-7200 yuan/ton, while the prices of solid anhydride and liquid anhydride in South China are 7500-7600 yuan/ton and 7600 yuan/ton respectively. On the whole, the average price of maleic anhydride market is 7156 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.18 compared with the previous working day, showing the tension between market supply and demand.

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2. new capacity entry delayed, supply tightening intensified

the new production capacity of maleic anhydride in Shandong, which was originally planned to be put into production at the end of March, has been delayed again and again due to various reasons. This greatly reduces the possibility of new production capacity entering the market in the short term, and reduces the supply pressure on the market. At the same time, in order to optimize production and improve efficiency, many domestic maleic anhydride devices have entered the shutdown maintenance stage. Large-scale parking maintenance directly reduces the supply of the market and further aggravates the tension on the supply side. This tightening of the supply side has provided strong support for the rise in the market price of maleic anhydride.

3. international crude oil market turmoil, raw material costs continue to rise

recently, the international crude oil market volatility, prices showed a volatile upward trend. This market change directly affects the raw material cost of maleic anhydride production. In particular, the price of key raw materials such as n-butane has been rising for days, which has caused significant changes in the cost structure of maleic anhydride production. In order to cope with the pressure of rising costs, refineries have to push up the offer price slightly in succession. This change in the cost side is further transmitted to the maleic anhydride market, making the cost of maleic anhydride products also rise, providing cost support for the rise in market prices.

4. terminal market just need to replenish, transaction atmosphere improved significantly

under the background of favorable supply side, the downstream market began to gradually change its attitude. Due to the delay of new production capacity entering the market and the tightening of supply, the procurement demand of downstream enterprises for maleic anhydride began to appear. With rising prices and tight supply, downstream companies are actively replenishing their stocks to cope with possible supply shortages. This demand for replenishment has led to a significant improvement in the trading atmosphere on the floor, and market trading activity has increased.

5. comprehensive outlook: high risks still need to be vigilant

although the current maleic anhydride market by the supply side of the good boost, prices showed an upward trend, but still need to be alert to high risk. On the one hand, as prices rise, some parking manufacturers may restart production due to profit temptation, thereby increasing market supply. This will change the supply and demand relationship in the market and put some pressure on prices. On the other hand, the specific progress of new capacity still needs to be closely watched. Once the new production capacity is successfully put into production and released, it will have a greater impact on market supply and may cause price fluctuations. In addition, the downstream resin market is still cautious about high-level raw materials. If the terminal demand continues to be sluggish, it will restrict the market price of maleic anhydride. Therefore, in the short term, the maleic anhydride market still needs to remain vigilant and pay close attention to market dynamics and changes in supply and demand.

Source: Baichuan Yingfu

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