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[Industry Focus]：The supply in the domestic octanol market exceeded the demand, with the price drop exceeding 2900 yuan/ton.

Read： 572 Time：8months ago Source：芯化和云Chemcloud

Recently, the domestic octanol market has been affected by multiple factors such as the impact of import supply, the surge in supply and the lack of demand follow-up, and the price has fallen sharply. Octanol market prices fell significantly, while its downstream plasticizers DOP and DOTP were also significantly dragged down.

异辛醇华北价格.jpg

1. import supply shocks, market prices fall sharply

since March, affected by the influx of imported goods, the domestic octanol market has shown a trend of oversupply, resulting in a sharp drop in prices. According to statistics, the market price of octanol has fallen by 2900 yuan/ton since March. This trend not only affected the market performance of octanol itself, but also had a significant drag on its downstream products such as DOP and DOTP, both of which fell by more than 2000 yuan/ton during the month.

2. supply surge, market supply and demand imbalance

in the fourth quarter of last year, the domestic supply of octanol was tight and the price continued to run at a high level, which led to the continued high level of imports. From February to March, with the arrival of imported octanol in the early stage, the supply level of the domestic octanol market has reached the highest level in the past two years. Although during this period, Anqing Shuguang octanol plant has been shut down for a long time, the normal operation of Ningxia Baichuan octanol plant has filled this gap, making the domestic octanol supply stable as a whole. However, the arrival of imported goods further exacerbated the imbalance between supply and demand in the market, forcing domestic octanol factories to accept new orders through the concession, thus accelerating the decline in the price of octanol.

3. demand follow-up is insufficient, plasticizer market profits drop sharply

although since March, the operation of DOP and DOTP, the two major plasticizers downstream of octanol, has gradually resumed, and the production enthusiasm of the factory is relatively high, the overall demand follow-up is not enough. Although the start of domestic PVC manufacturers is at a high level, but the downstream demand for PVC support is not good, the market inventory is high, and the market is expected to continue to enter the warehouse, which makes the PVC market demand for plasticizers support weakened. With the arrival of the PVC Spring Festival maintenance season, the demand for plasticizers is expected to decline further. In the case of abundant supply and poor demand, the profit of plasticizers has fallen sharply. The unexpected decline in the upstream octanol market has brought a negative impact on the cost side of the plasticizer market, resulting in a sharp decline in the market price of DOP and DOTP.

dop华东价格.jpg DOP Price Trend

DOTP华东价格.jpg DOTP Price Trend

4. outlook: In the short term, the octanol market may still be down.

Judging from the current market situation, the mainstream factories are operating normally, the supply is relatively abundant, and the factory inventory pressure still exists. Downstream DOP and DOTP procurement is mainly based on rigid demand, with limited support for the market. Therefore, the octanol market is expected to remain in the short term or the possibility of a downside. Market participants need to pay close attention to changes in supply and demand and imports in order to develop a reasonable business strategy.

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