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[Industry Focus]：What is the supply and demand pattern of the regenerative ABS/PS market in the first quarter of 2024?

Read： 604 Time：9months ago Source：百川盈孚

1. Q1 2024 Market Overview

this quarter, the overall regenerative ABS/PS market showed a steady trend, price volatility is small. Supported by the narrow upward price of new materials ABS and PS, the recycled material market has remained relatively stable. During the period from January to March, due to the arrival of the Spring Festival holiday, terminal demand was slightly flat, downstream manufacturers basically completed pre-holiday stocking, and market transaction activity decreased. Suppliers are less willing to ship before the holiday, and most choose to keep their products in stock, which also leaves little room for price downside on the cost side.

Specifically, the prices of black granulation grade II non-environmental protection, non-flame retardant, impact 7-8 particles and impact 12 or so particles in Zhejiang remained at the same level in the same period last quarter, at 6650 yuan/ton and 7400 yuan/ton respectively. The price of PS transparent refrigerator drawer crushing grade I material in Shandong also remained at 6700 yuan/ton, the same as last quarter.

After the Spring Festival, with the rise in domestic ABS market prices, raw material styrene prices also showed an upward trend. ABS manufacturers raised their ex-factory prices under cost pressure, but the recovery of terminal demand was relatively slow, and the market performance was "priceless". With the gradual recovery of the market, renewable enterprises began to resume production, but most enterprises still hold a wait-and-see attitude, maintenance equipment to cope with market uncertainty. Although downstream products enterprises are also resuming production, they mainly focus on digesting pre-holiday inventory, and their desire to purchase raw materials is not high. Nevertheless, the improvement in the inquiry atmosphere has played a role in promoting the resumption of production by recycling companies.

On the whole, the regenerated ABS/PS market was not active in this quarter, and the price was mainly stable. Downstream manufacturers are cautious when filling positions, and the market is oversupply. However, the relative scarcity of wool sources in some areas has formed a certain support for the price of recycled materials. The strong shock of the new material market has also increased the demand atmosphere for recycled materials to a certain extent, and the inquiries from downstream manufacturers for recycled materials have increased, but the actual transactions are still relatively scattered.

2. Q2 2024 Market Forecast

looking ahead to the second quarter, the regenerative ABS/PS market is expected to maintain stable operation within a certain range. The rise and fall of the prices of new materials ABS and PS will bring some uncertainty to the regeneration market, but on the whole, the regeneration ABS market will present a situation of empty and good intertwined.

At present, the overall supply of renewable market is relatively abundant, but the downstream demand release speed is not fast, the relationship between supply and demand is still in a state of imbalance. Downstream manufacturers show a high degree of caution in their purchases and are less receptive to high-priced sources. In this case, the renewable enterprises tend to stabilize the offer to keep the market stable.

With the gradual recovery of terminal demand, it is expected that the mainstream price of recycled ABS/PS will show a steady trend. However, considering the relationship between market supply and demand and the purchasing attitude of downstream manufacturers, the price rise and fall is expected to be controlled within 0-300 yuan/ton.

In summary, the regenerative ABS/PS market will show some volatility in the second quarter of 2024, but the overall trend is mainly stable. Recycling companies need to pay close attention to market dynamics and flexibly adjust their sales strategies to cope with market uncertainty.

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