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[Industry Focus]：2024 New production capacity release of phenol ketone, phenol and acetone market trend differentiation

Read： 604 Time：10months ago Source：百川盈孚

With the arrival of 2024, the new production capacity of four phenol ketones has been fully released, and the production of phenol and acetone has increased. however, the acetone market was strong, while phenol prices continued to fall. East China market prices once down to 6900 yuan/ton, but the end-user timely into the market replenishment, making the price moderate rebound.

2023-2024年中国华东苯酚市场价偏离均价情况统计.jpg

Phenol aspects: the main downstream bisphenol A load may be increased. The new phenol ketone plant in Heilongjiang and Qingdao is gradually running steadily, and the sales volume of phenol outside the new capacity is expected to decrease. However, the overall profit of phenol ketone was continuously squeezed by pure benzene. As of January 15, 2024, the loss of phenol ketone plant for external raw materials was around 600 yuan/ton.

Acetone aspects: port inventories were at a low level after the New Year's Day holiday, and last Friday Jiangyin port inventories even reached an all-time low of 8500 tons. Despite the increase in port inventories on Monday, the actual source of goods in circulation is still limited. It is expected that 4800 tons of acetone will arrive in Hong Kong this weekend, but it is not easy for the industry to do more. At present, the downstream market of acetone is relatively healthy, and most downstream products have profit support.

2022-2023年华东港口苯酚、丙酮库存走势图.jpg

At present, the loss of phenol ketone plant has increased, but the situation of plant load reduction operation has not yet appeared. The industry is more confused about market performance. The strong trend of pure benzene led to the increase in the price of phenol. Today, a Dalian factory announced that the presale orders for phenol and acetone were signed in January, injecting a certain basis for the market to rise in price. It is expected that the price of phenol will fluctuate between 7200-7400 yuan/ton this week.

This week, 6500 tons of Saudi acetone are expected to arrive. Today, it has been unloaded at Jiangyin Port, but most of it is ordered by end users. Nevertheless, the acetone market will remain tight, and the price of acetone is expected to be between 6800-7000 yuan/ton this week. Overall, acetone will remain strong relative to phenol.

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