Current Location： Home > News > Industry Focus > Bisphenol A supply exceeds demand, how will the market develop in 2024

[Industry Focus]：Bisphenol A supply exceeds demand, how will the market develop in 2024

Read： 674 Time：10months ago Source：百川盈孚、聚碳酸酯分会

In the chemical industry in recent years, bisphenol A is undoubtedly a topic of concern. As an important raw material of polymer materials such as polycarbonate and epoxy resin, bisphenol A has been widely used in the world. This paper will analyze the capacity expansion, industry integration, production and industry start-up, import and export situation and future supply forecast of bisphenol A in 2023.

1. 2023 bisphenol A new Capacity Statistics

2018-2024年国内双酚A产能变化.jpg

from the perspective of capacity expansion, 2023 bisphenol A the industry continues to grow. During the year, a number of new production capacity was put into production, including 480000 tons/year of an enterprise in Lianyungang, Jiangsu, 200000 tons/year of an enterprise in Guangxi, 200000 tons/year of an enterprise in Heilongjiang and 170000 tons/year of the second phase of an enterprise in Ningbo, Zhejiang, totaling 1.05 million tons. This will increase the domestic bisphenol A production capacity to 4.875 million tons in 2023.

However, despite the expansion of production capacity, the degree of upstream and downstream integration of the bisphenol A industry has changed. Among the newly put into production, the two enterprises in Guangxi and Heilongjiang are both upstream phenolic ketone and bisphenol A, but the downstream is not synchronized. This led to an increase in the upstream integration of the domestic bisphenol A industry in 2023, but the proportion of downstream integration decreased. Specifically, 12 of the 18 bisphenol A production enterprises are equipped with phenol ketone devices, and the proportion of upstream integration is raised to 67%. However, 8 enterprises have matching phenol ketone and downstream devices, and the degree of integration of bisphenol A upstream and downstream is 44% in 2023.

Production and Industry Situation of Bisphenol A in 2. 2023

2019-2023年我国双酚A月产量及月开工对比.jpg

in terms of production, China's bisphenol A production reached 2.96 million tons in 2023, an increase of 41.47 percent over the same period last year. Among the newly put into operation, the 200000-ton plant in Heilongjiang and the second phase 170000-ton plant of an enterprise in Ningbo will be put into operation in December 2023, making limited contribution to the supply in 2023. However, the 480000-ton plant of an enterprise in Shandong, which was put into operation at the end of 2022, will achieve stable operation in 2023, making a significant contribution to 2023 production.

Despite the continuous expansion of production capacity, the operating load of the bisphenol A industry has declined. In 2023, the average annual industry start-up load of China's bisphenol A industry was 71%, down 1.06 year-on-year. The growth rate of downstream demand is far less than the growth rate of bisphenol A supply, resulting in an imbalance between supply and demand. Since 2019, the overall supply of bisphenol A in China has shown an increasing trend. In order to alleviate the imbalance between supply and demand in the industry, the overall capacity utilization rate of bisphenol A production enterprises showed a downward trend.

Import and export of bisphenol A in 3. 2023

2023年1-11月我国双酚A主要进口国家地区统计.jpg

in terms of import and export, according to statistics, as of November 2023, the total import volume of bisphenol A was about 161100 tons, a decrease of 236900 tons compared with the same period in 2022; the total export volume was about 4200 tons, a decrease of 6900 tons compared with the same period in 2022. Imports mainly come from South Korea, Thailand and Taiwan. Since 2019, China's imports of bisphenol A have continued to decline, and its external dependence has continued to decline.

我国双酚A进口数据走势图.jpg

我国双酚A出口数据走势图.jpg

4. Domestic Bisphenol A Supply Forecast in 2024

it is estimated that by 2024, China's monthly theoretical output of bisphenol A will increase by 125800 tons, and daily external sales will increase by 4137 tons. However, under the situation that the supply of bisphenol A industry is seriously greater than the demand, it is expected that the capacity utilization rate of bisphenol A industry will drop to 50%-60% in the future, and the adjustment of enterprise start-up is expected to be more frequent, and the possibility of long-term parking is not ruled out.

2024年双酚A投产计划.jpg

The bisphenol A industry faces both opportunities and challenges in the future development. In order to adapt to changes in the market and changes in demand, companies need to flexibly adjust production and sales strategies, and strengthen technological innovation and industrial chain integration. At the same time, it is also necessary to pay attention to environmental protection and sustainable development to promote the green development of the industry.

Previous： Total investment 10.2 billion! The satellite chemical integration project is publicized before planning and approval, including 900000 tons of propylene and 80000 tons of neopentyl glycol.

Next： 2024 New production capacity release of phenol ketone, phenol and acetone market trend differentiation

News Categories