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[Industry Focus]：Analysis of the factors influencing the recent rebound in China's isopropanol market, short-term or strong operation

Read： 590 Time：11months ago Source：隆众资讯张倩

Since mid-November, China's isopropyl alcohol market has begun a wave of rebound. The 100000-ton/isopropanol plant in the main plant is running negatively, and this positive news has stimulated the market. In addition, under the previous decline, middlemen and downstream inventories are at a low level. Under the boost of new news, buyers make up for the low price, which makes isopropanol in short supply in stages. Subsequently, the export news appeared, orders increased, further supporting the rise in the price of isopropanol. As of November 17, 2023, Jiangsu isopropyl Alcohol Market Price reference at 8000-8200 yuan/ton, up 7.28 from November 10.

1. acetone isopropanol process cost support strong

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during the cycle, the raw material acetone widened, as of November 17, Jiangsu acetone price reference in 7950 yuan/ton, up 6.51 percent from November 10. Accordingly, the cost value of isopropyl alcohol increased to 7950 yuan/ton, up 5.65 percent month-on-month. It is expected that in the short term, the rise in the acetone market will slow down. Insufficient arrival of imported goods, port inventory decline, domestic goods according to the plan to arrange goods, goods holders in the hands of limited in stock resources, strong price sentiment, let profit shipping sentiment is insufficient, offer firm upward. Terminal factories have been re-stocked in the market, and the volume of transactions has been expanded.

2. isopropanol industry operating rate declines, in stock supply shrinks

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on November 17, the average operating rate of China's isopropanol industry was about 49%. Among them, the operating rate of acetone-based isopropanol enterprises is about 50%, while Lihua Yiweiyuan 100000 tons/year isopropanol plant is reduced, and Huizhou Yuxin 50000 tons/year isopropanol also reduces the production load. The operating rate of propylene-based isopropanol enterprises is about 47%. With the gradual consumption of factory inventory, coupled with the high enthusiasm of downstream buying, the order displacement plan of some enterprises is full, and the external volume of enterprises is limited. Despite the decline in replenishment enthusiasm, but in the short term enterprises are still mainly to deliver orders, inventory remains low.

3. market mentality optimistic

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according to the results of a survey of the mentality of market participants, 30% of the operators are bearish on the future. They believe that the current downstream acceptance of high prices is declining, and the phased replenishment cycle is basically over, the demand side will weaken. At the same time, 38% of the owners are bullish on the future market. They believe that the raw material acetone is still tentatively likely to rise, the cost surface support is strong. In addition, some of the negative enterprises have not yet heard of the negative plan, supply remains tight. With the support of export orders, the subsequent good news still exists.

To sum up, although the enthusiasm of downstream buying has declined and some owners have insufficient confidence in the market outlook, it is expected that factory inventories will remain low in the short term. Enterprises will mainly deliver pre-orders and have heard that export orders are under negotiation. This may play a supporting role in the market, and the isopropanol market is expected to remain strong in the short term. However, given the possibility of weakening demand and pressure on the cost side, the rally in the isopropanol sector may be limited.

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