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[Industry Focus]：Phenolic ketone market to make up more, the price is likely to pull up

Read： 575 Time：13months ago Source：百川盈孚

On November 14, 2023, the phenolic ketone market both increased in price. In these two days, the average market price of phenol and acetone rose by 0.96 and 0.83, respectively, reaching 7872 yuan/ton and 6703 yuan/ton. Behind the seemingly ordinary data, there is a turbulent market for phenolic ketones.

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Looking back at the market trends of these two major chemicals, we can find some interesting laws. First of all, from the general trend, the price fluctuations of phenol and acetone are closely related to the concentrated release of new production capacity and the profitability of downstream industries.

In mid-October this year, the phenolic ketone industry ushered in a new production capacity of 1.77 million tons. However, due to the complexity of the phenol-ketone process, it takes 30-45 days for new capacity to move from feed to product. Therefore, although a large amount of new capacity was released, in fact, before the middle of November, these new capacity did not steadily output products.

In this case, the limited supply of phenol in the hands of the industry, coupled with the pure benzene market, phenol Price it rose rapidly, reaching a high of 7850-7900 yuan/ton.

The acetone market presents a different picture. In the previous period, the main reasons for the decline in acetone prices were the commissioning of new production capacity, losses in the MMA industry and the pressure of isopropanol export orders. However, over time, the market has changed. Although some factories stopped for overhaul, there was an overhaul plan for phenol ketone transposition in November, and the external amount of acetone did not increase. At the same time, the price of MMA industry rebounded rapidly and returned to profitability, and the maintenance plan of some factories also slowed down. These factors work together, making the price of acetone also appeared a certain rebound.

In terms of inventory, as of November 13, 2023, China's phenol Jiangyin port inventory was 11000 tons, a decrease of 3500 tons from November 10; China's acetone Jiangyin port inventory was 13500 tons, a decrease of 2500 tons from November 3. It can be seen that although the release of new capacity has caused some pressure on the market, the current situation of low inventory in the port has hedged this pressure.

In addition, according to the statistics from October 26, 2023 to November 13, 2023, the average price of phenol in East China is 7871.15 yuan/ton, and the average price of acetone is 6698.08 yuan/ton. At present, the in stock price in East China is close to these average prices, which indicates that the market has fully expected and digested the release of new capacity.

However, this does not mean that the market is completely stable. On the contrary, due to the release of new capacity and the uncertainty of the profitability of the downstream industry, the market may still fluctuate. Especially considering the complexity of the phenolic ketone market and the different production schedules of various factories, the future trend of the market still needs to be closely watched.

In this context, it is key for investors and traders to pay close attention to market dynamics, allocate assets rationally and use derivatives flexibly. For manufacturers, in addition to paying attention to market prices, they should also pay attention to the optimization of technological processes and the improvement of production efficiency to deal with possible market risks.

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In general, the phenol ketone market is currently in a relatively complex and sensitive stage after the concentrated release of new production capacity and profit fluctuations in downstream industries. For all participants, only by fully understanding and grasping the law of market change can they find their foothold in the complex market environment.

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