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[Industry Focus]：In October, the contradiction between phenol supply and demand intensified, the cost of weak impact, the market showed a downward trend.

Read： 795 Time：12months ago Source：生意社

In October, China's phenol market generally showed a downward trend. At the beginning of the month, the domestic phenol market was quoted at 9477 yuan/ton, but by the end of the month, the figure had dropped to 8425 yuan/ton, a drop of 11.10.

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From the supply point of view, in October, domestic phenolic ketone enterprises overhauled a total of 4 sets of equipment, involving a production capacity of about 850000 tons and a loss of about 55000 tons. Despite this, the total output in October was up 8.8 percent from the previous month. Specifically, Bluestar Harbin's 150000-ton/year phenol ketone plant was restarted and started from overhaul, while China Shipping Shell's 350000-ton/year phenol ketone plant was continuously shut down. Sinopec Mitsui's 400000-ton/year phenol ketone plant was parked for 5 days in mid-October, while Changchun Chemical's 480000-ton/year phenol ketone plant was parked from the beginning of the month. It is expected that the parking time will last for about 45 days and is still under further follow-up.

In terms of cost, after entering October, the price of raw material pure benzene also showed a downward trend due to the sharp drop in crude oil prices during the National Day. This situation had a negative impact on the phenol market. Traders began to make profits in order to ship. Although the factory insisted on high listing prices, the market still fell sharply despite the overall poor demand. The terminal factory just needs to purchase more, but the demand for large orders is relatively scarce, and the focus of negotiations in the East China market quickly fell below 8500 yuan/ton. However, with the pull of crude oil prices, pure benzene prices rebounded. In the absence of pressure on the social supply of phenol, traders began to tentatively push up offers. Therefore, the phenol market showed a rising and falling trend in the middle and late ten days, but the overall price range did not change much.

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On the demand side, although the market price of phenol continued to fall, the inquiry of the terminal did not increase, the interest in purchasing was not stimulated, and the market situation was still weak. The center of gravity of the downstream bisphenol A market is also weakening, and the mainstream negotiation price in East China is 10,000-10,050 yuan/ton.

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To sum up, it is expected that the supply of domestic phenol may continue to increase after November. At the same time, we will also pay attention to the replenishment of imported sources. According to the current information, the domestic plant Sinopec Mitsui and Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II phenol ketone plant may have a maintenance plan, which will have a positive impact on the market in the short term. However, the downstream bisphenol A units of Yanshan Petrochemical and Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II may have a shutdown plan, which will have a reducing effect on the demand for phenol. Therefore, the business agency expects that after November, the phenol market may still have downward expectations. In the later period, we will pay close attention to the specific conditions of the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain and the supply side. If there is a possibility of growth, we will inform you in time. Overall, however, it is not expected that there will be much room for volatility.

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